KBNA / Tue Sep 29 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Sep 28 · 14:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

50%

36%

11%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.9¢Risks 31.95u

WN2NO 68.0¢Risks 68.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.05u · WN2 −68.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-22T07:59:08+00:00	28.2%	50.0%	13.4%	38.1%	20.4%
2026-09-22T08:44:41+00:00	28.2%	50.0%	13.4%	38.1%	20.4%
2026-09-22T09:29:46+00:00	28.2%	50.0%	13.4%	38.1%	20.4%
2026-09-22T10:14:51+00:00	28.2%	50.0%	13.4%	38.1%	20.4%
2026-09-22T11:00:00+00:00	28.2%	64.3%	13.4%	38.1%	20.4%
2026-09-22T11:45:10+00:00	28.2%	64.3%	13.4%	38.1%	20.4%
2026-09-22T12:30:15+00:00	28.2%	64.3%	13.4%	38.1%	20.4%
2026-09-22T13:15:20+00:00	28.2%	64.3%	13.4%	38.1%	20.4%
2026-09-22T14:00:28+00:00	24.8%	64.3%	13.4%	38.2%	20.4%
2026-09-22T14:47:13+00:00	24.8%	64.3%	13.4%	38.2%	20.4%
2026-09-22T15:32:22+00:00	24.8%	64.3%	13.4%	38.2%	20.4%
2026-09-22T16:17:40+00:00	24.8%	64.3%	13.4%	38.2%	20.4%
2026-09-22T17:02:46+00:00	24.8%	64.3%	13.4%	38.2%	47.1%
2026-09-22T17:47:52+00:00	24.8%	64.3%	13.4%	38.2%	47.1%
2026-09-22T18:32:56+00:00	24.8%	64.3%	13.4%	38.2%	47.1%
2026-09-22T19:18:05+00:00	24.8%	64.3%	13.4%	38.2%	47.1%
2026-09-22T20:03:10+00:00	37.3%	64.3%	13.4%	38.2%	47.1%
2026-09-22T20:48:15+00:00	37.3%	64.3%	13.4%	38.2%	47.1%
2026-09-22T21:33:22+00:00	37.3%	64.3%	13.4%	38.2%	47.1%
2026-09-22T22:18:31+00:00	37.3%	64.3%	13.4%	38.2%	47.1%
2026-09-22T23:03:38+00:00	37.3%	65.2%	7.0%	38.2%	47.1%
2026-09-22T23:48:44+00:00	37.3%	65.2%	7.0%	38.2%	47.1%
2026-09-23T00:33:50+00:00	37.3%	65.2%	7.0%	38.2%	47.1%
2026-09-23T01:18:58+00:00	37.3%	65.2%	7.0%	38.2%	47.1%
2026-09-23T02:04:05+00:00	42.2%	65.2%	7.0%	38.2%	47.1%
2026-09-23T02:49:17+00:00	42.2%	65.2%	7.0%	38.2%	47.1%
2026-09-23T03:34:36+00:00	42.2%	65.2%	7.0%	38.2%	47.1%
2026-09-23T04:19:44+00:00	42.2%	65.2%	7.0%	38.2%	47.1%
2026-09-23T05:04:52+00:00	42.2%	65.2%	7.0%	76.7%	22.9%
2026-09-23T05:50:05+00:00	42.2%	65.2%	7.0%	76.7%	22.9%
2026-09-23T06:35:09+00:00	42.2%	65.2%	7.0%	76.7%	22.9%
2026-09-23T07:20:18+00:00	42.2%	65.2%	7.0%	76.7%	22.9%
2026-09-23T08:05:39+00:00	47.8%	65.2%	7.0%	53.0%	22.9%
2026-09-23T08:51:11+00:00	47.8%	65.2%	7.0%	53.0%	22.9%
2026-09-23T09:36:16+00:00	47.8%	65.2%	7.0%	53.0%	22.9%
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00	47.8%	65.2%	7.0%	53.0%	22.9%
2026-09-23T11:06:27+00:00	47.8%	51.1%	8.5%	53.0%	22.9%
2026-09-23T11:51:39+00:00	47.8%	51.1%	8.5%	53.0%	22.9%
2026-09-23T12:36:44+00:00	47.8%	51.1%	8.5%	53.0%	22.9%
2026-09-23T13:21:49+00:00	40.3%	51.1%	8.5%	53.0%	22.9%
2026-09-23T14:09:06+00:00	40.4%	51.1%	8.6%	53.0%	22.6%
2026-09-23T14:54:18+00:00	40.4%	51.1%	8.6%	53.0%	22.6%
2026-09-23T15:39:30+00:00	40.4%	51.1%	8.6%	53.0%	22.6%
2026-09-23T16:24:37+00:00	40.4%	51.1%	8.6%	53.0%	51.2%
2026-09-23T17:09:47+00:00	40.4%	51.1%	4.3%	53.0%	51.2%
2026-09-23T17:54:55+00:00	40.4%	51.1%	4.3%	53.0%	51.2%
2026-09-23T18:40:00+00:00	40.4%	51.1%	4.3%	53.0%	51.2%
2026-09-23T19:25:12+00:00	44.8%	51.1%	4.3%	54.2%	51.2%
2026-09-23T20:10:19+00:00	44.8%	51.1%	4.3%	54.2%	51.2%
2026-09-23T20:55:25+00:00	44.8%	51.1%	4.3%	54.2%	51.2%
2026-09-23T21:40:30+00:00	44.8%	51.1%	4.3%	54.2%	51.2%
2026-09-23T22:25:37+00:00	44.8%	51.1%	4.3%	54.2%	51.2%
2026-09-23T23:10:42+00:00	44.8%	51.1%	6.7%	54.2%	51.2%
2026-09-23T23:55:48+00:00	44.8%	51.1%	6.7%	54.2%	51.2%
2026-09-24T00:40:54+00:00	44.8%	51.1%	6.7%	54.2%	51.2%
2026-09-24T01:26:06+00:00	50.0%	51.1%	6.7%	54.2%	51.2%
2026-09-24T02:11:12+00:00	50.0%	51.1%	6.7%	54.2%	51.2%
2026-09-24T02:56:28+00:00	50.0%	51.1%	6.7%	54.2%	51.2%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00	50.0%	51.1%	6.7%	54.2%	51.2%
2026-09-24T04:26:59+00:00	50.0%	51.1%	6.7%	54.2%	38.6%
2026-09-24T05:12:05+00:00	50.0%	51.1%	5.1%	54.2%	38.6%
2026-09-24T05:57:14+00:00	50.0%	51.1%	5.1%	54.2%	38.6%
2026-09-24T06:42:25+00:00	50.0%	51.1%	5.1%	54.2%	38.6%
2026-09-24T07:27:47+00:00	34.3%	51.1%	5.1%	55.5%	38.6%
2026-09-24T08:13:25+00:00	34.3%	51.1%	5.1%	55.5%	38.6%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	34.3%	51.1%	5.1%	55.5%	38.6%
2026-09-24T09:43:41+00:00	34.3%	51.1%	5.1%	55.5%	38.6%
2026-09-24T10:28:46+00:00	34.3%	51.1%	5.1%	55.5%	38.6%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	34.3%	68.0%	3.9%	55.5%	38.6%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	34.3%	68.0%	3.9%	55.5%	38.6%
2026-09-24T12:44:02+00:00	34.3%	68.0%	3.9%	55.5%	38.6%
2026-09-24T13:29:17+00:00	31.4%	68.0%	3.9%	55.5%	38.6%
2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:00	31.4%	68.0%	3.9%	55.5%	38.6%
2026-09-24T15:01:53+00:00	31.4%	63.1%	3.9%	55.5%	38.6%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	31.4%	63.1%	3.9%	55.5%	38.6%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	31.4%	63.1%	3.9%	55.5%	38.6%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	31.4%	63.1%	2.3%	55.5%	38.6%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	31.4%	63.1%	2.3%	55.5%	38.6%
2026-09-24T18:47:43+00:00	31.4%	63.1%	2.3%	55.5%	38.6%
2026-09-24T19:32:53+00:00	37.3%	63.1%	2.3%	55.5%	22.6%
2026-09-24T20:18:01+00:00	37.3%	63.1%	2.3%	55.5%	22.6%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	37.3%	63.1%	2.3%	55.5%	22.6%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	37.3%	63.1%	2.3%	55.5%	22.6%
2026-09-24T22:33:17+00:00	37.3%	63.1%	2.3%	52.7%	22.6%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	37.3%	55.1%	2.7%	52.7%	22.6%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	37.3%	55.1%	2.7%	52.7%	22.6%
2026-09-25T00:48:42+00:00	37.3%	55.1%	2.7%	52.7%	22.6%
2026-09-25T01:33:51+00:00	32.8%	55.1%	2.7%	52.7%	22.6%
2026-09-25T02:18:58+00:00	32.8%	55.1%	2.7%	52.7%	22.6%
2026-09-26T02:26:22+00:00	34.9%	35.4%	1.0%	25.6%	11.5%
2026-09-26T03:11:44+00:00	34.9%	35.4%	1.0%	25.6%	11.5%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	34.9%	35.4%	1.0%	25.6%	11.5%
2026-09-26T04:42:05+00:00	34.9%	35.4%	1.0%	25.6%	8.8%
2026-09-26T05:27:18+00:00	34.9%	35.4%	2.4%	25.6%	8.8%
2026-09-26T06:12:25+00:00	34.9%	35.4%	2.4%	25.6%	8.8%
2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00	34.9%	35.4%	2.4%	25.6%	8.8%
2026-09-26T07:42:58+00:00	40.9%	35.4%	2.4%	36.9%	8.8%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	40.9%	35.4%	2.4%	36.9%	8.8%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	40.9%	35.4%	2.4%	36.9%	8.8%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00	40.9%	35.4%	2.4%	36.9%	8.8%
2026-09-26T10:44:04+00:00	40.9%	35.4%	2.4%	36.9%	8.8%
2026-09-26T11:29:16+00:00	40.9%	48.6%	1.8%	36.9%	8.8%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	40.9%	48.6%	1.8%	36.9%	8.8%
2026-09-26T12:59:35+00:00	40.9%	48.6%	1.8%	36.9%	8.8%
2026-09-26T13:44:43+00:00	40.9%	48.6%	1.8%	36.9%	8.8%
2026-09-26T14:32:08+00:00	40.9%	48.6%	1.8%	36.9%	8.8%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	40.9%	47.3%	1.8%	36.9%	8.8%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	40.9%	47.3%	1.8%	36.9%	8.8%
2026-09-26T16:47:42+00:00	40.9%	47.3%	1.8%	36.9%	8.0%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	40.9%	47.3%	1.8%	36.9%	8.0%
2026-09-26T18:17:59+00:00	40.9%	47.3%	1.8%	36.9%	8.0%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	40.9%	47.3%	1.8%	36.9%	8.0%
2026-09-26T19:48:18+00:00	34.9%	47.3%	1.8%	28.9%	8.0%
2026-09-26T20:33:26+00:00	34.9%	47.3%	1.8%	28.9%	8.0%
2026-09-26T21:18:32+00:00	34.9%	47.3%	1.8%	28.9%	8.0%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	34.9%	47.3%	1.8%	28.9%	8.0%
2026-09-26T22:48:45+00:00	34.9%	47.3%	1.8%	28.9%	8.0%
2026-09-26T23:33:55+00:00	34.9%	48.6%	0.7%	28.9%	8.0%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	34.9%	48.6%	0.7%	28.9%	8.0%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	34.9%	48.6%	0.7%	28.9%	8.0%
2026-09-27T01:49:25+00:00	40.9%	48.6%	0.7%	28.9%	8.0%
2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00	40.9%	48.6%	0.7%	28.9%	8.0%
2026-09-27T03:19:46+00:00	40.9%	48.6%	0.7%	28.9%	8.0%
2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00	40.9%	48.6%	0.7%	28.9%	8.0%
2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00	40.9%	48.6%	0.7%	28.9%	17.5%
2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00	40.9%	48.6%	2.9%	28.9%	17.5%
2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00	40.9%	48.6%	2.9%	28.9%	17.5%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	40.9%	48.6%	2.9%	28.9%	17.5%
2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00	44.3%	48.6%	2.9%	47.1%	17.5%
2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00	44.3%	48.6%	2.9%	47.1%	17.5%
2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00	44.3%	48.6%	2.9%	47.1%	17.5%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	44.3%	48.6%	2.9%	47.1%	17.5%
2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00	44.3%	48.6%	2.9%	47.1%	17.5%
2026-09-27T11:37:17+00:00	44.3%	54.7%	1.8%	47.1%	17.5%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	44.3%	54.7%	1.8%	47.1%	17.5%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	44.3%	54.7%	1.8%	47.1%	17.5%
2026-09-27T13:52:42+00:00	41.5%	54.7%	1.8%	47.1%	17.5%
2026-09-27T14:40:05+00:00	41.5%	54.7%	1.8%	47.1%	17.5%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	41.5%	54.7%	1.8%	47.1%	17.5%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	41.5%	54.7%	1.8%	47.1%	17.5%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	41.5%	54.7%	1.0%	47.1%	15.4%
2026-09-27T17:40:47+00:00	41.5%	54.7%	1.0%	47.1%	15.4%
2026-09-27T18:25:58+00:00	41.5%	54.7%	1.0%	47.1%	15.4%
2026-09-27T19:11:08+00:00	41.5%	54.7%	1.0%	47.1%	15.4%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	39.6%	54.7%	1.0%	40.4%	15.4%
2026-09-27T20:41:27+00:00	39.6%	54.7%	1.0%	40.4%	15.4%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	39.6%	54.7%	1.0%	40.4%	15.4%
2026-09-27T22:11:36+00:00	39.6%	54.7%	1.0%	40.4%	15.4%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	39.6%	56.3%	1.0%	40.4%	15.4%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	39.6%	56.3%	1.0%	40.4%	15.4%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	39.6%	56.3%	1.0%	40.4%	15.4%
2026-09-28T01:12:04+00:00	39.6%	56.3%	1.0%	40.4%	15.4%
2026-09-28T01:57:11+00:00	43.3%	56.3%	1.0%	40.4%	15.4%
2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00	43.3%	56.3%	1.0%	40.4%	15.4%
2026-09-28T03:27:34+00:00	43.3%	56.3%	1.0%	40.4%	15.4%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	43.3%	56.3%	1.0%	40.4%	15.4%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	43.3%	56.3%	3.3%	40.4%	11.2%
2026-09-28T05:43:44+00:00	43.3%	56.3%	3.3%	40.4%	11.2%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	43.3%	56.3%	3.3%	40.4%	11.2%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	43.3%	56.3%	3.3%	40.4%	11.2%
2026-09-28T07:59:29+00:00	42.2%	56.3%	3.3%	50.0%	11.2%
2026-09-28T08:45:28+00:00	42.2%	56.3%	3.3%	50.0%	11.2%
2026-09-28T09:30:33+00:00	42.2%	56.3%	3.3%	50.0%	11.2%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	42.2%	56.3%	3.3%	50.0%	11.2%
2026-09-28T11:00:49+00:00	42.2%	62.0%	1.9%	50.0%	11.2%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	42.2%	62.0%	1.9%	50.0%	11.2%
2026-09-28T12:31:12+00:00	42.2%	62.0%	1.9%	50.0%	11.2%
2026-09-28T13:16:21+00:00	42.2%	62.0%	1.9%	50.0%	11.2%
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00	36.5%	62.0%	1.9%	50.0%	11.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	62%	88.3°F	2.6°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	87.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	36%	86.1°F	4.0°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	31%	86.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-28 02:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	85.0°F	3.3°F	2026-09-28 06:00	Pending
ICON	11%	83.2°F	3.5°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	80.4°F	3.4°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260929-TMAX-GE88
Opened Sep 22 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Tue Sep 29

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗