KBNA / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Sep 24 · 14:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

88%

81%

73%

54%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 76.4¢Risks 76.40u

WN2NO 23.6¢Risks 23.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.60u · WN2 −23.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	17.0%	—	—	27.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	37.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	24.7%	—	—	46.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	24.9%	—	—	51.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	70.5%	—	—	45.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.6%	62.0%	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	76.5%	28.6%	4.5%	—	63.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	8.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	70.3%	1.9%	2.5%	—	72.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	82.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	58.3%	87.5%	42.4%	—	72.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	75.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	30.1%	71.9%	35.2%	—	79.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	5.5%	79.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	59.1%	92.0%	60.7%	—	82.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	50.0%	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	66.2%	63.7%	83.3%	43.0%	—	89.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	69.8%	79.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	67.8%	87.1%	77.7%	—	88.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	83.5%	85.2%	—	—	91.2%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	66.1%	87.9%	87.4%	77.5%	—	93.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	83.0%	92.0%	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	83.0%	93.9%	78.8%	—	89.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	87.9%	93.2%	—	—	91.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	63.9%	89.1%	92.7%	78.7%	0.0%	91.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	87.7%	91.7%	0.0%	—	85.2%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	84.7%	89.0%	83.2%	71.0%	84.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	88.0%	87.4%	85.5%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	90.0%	89.4%	92.0%	57.4%	93.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	89.1%	92.8%	92.8%	—	88.5%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	88.0%	95.7%	94.3%	78.0%	88.7%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	91.3%	92.9%	90.2%	—	92.4%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	95.6%	91.6%	94.5%	81.8%	93.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	66.2%	94.0%	89.5%	91.4%	—	85.6%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	77.4%	95.6%	92.3%	93.4%	86.6%	89.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	96.6%	97.4%	95.1%	—	97.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	90.9°F	2.2°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	93.2°F	6.7°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
ICON	81%	91.5°F	6.9°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	88.8°F	5.3°F	2026-09-24 06:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	87.0°F	7.6°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	85.9°F	4.5°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	86.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-24 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260930-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗