WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KBNA / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Sep 24 · 14:16 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
HRES
88%
ICON
81%
AIFS
73%
WN2
54%
Consensus
88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 76.4¢Risks 76.40u
VS
WN2NO 23.6¢Risks 23.60u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +23.60u · WN2 −23.60u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-09-24T02:56:28+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-09-24T04:26:59+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-09-24T05:12:05+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-09-24T05:57:14+00:00AIFS Single: 51.4% · 2026-09-24T06:42:25+00:00AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-09-24T07:27:47+00:00AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-09-24T08:13:25+00:00AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-09-24T09:43:41+00:00AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-09-24T10:28:46+00:00AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00AIFS Single: 77.9% · 2026-09-24T12:44:02+00:00AIFS Single: 73.8% · 2026-09-24T13:29:17+00:00AIFS Single: 73.2% · 2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.5% · 2026-09-24T02:56:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.5% · 2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.5% · 2026-09-24T04:26:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.5% · 2026-09-24T05:12:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.5% · 2026-09-24T05:57:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.5% · 2026-09-24T06:42:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.5% · 2026-09-24T07:27:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.5% · 2026-09-24T08:13:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.5% · 2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.5% · 2026-09-24T09:43:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 87.5% · 2026-09-24T10:28:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.3% · 2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.3% · 2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.3% · 2026-09-24T12:44:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.3% · 2026-09-24T13:29:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.3% · 2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.6% · 2026-09-24T02:56:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.6% · 2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 56.6% · 2026-09-24T04:26:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.8% · 2026-09-24T05:12:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.8% · 2026-09-24T05:57:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.8% · 2026-09-24T06:42:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.8% · 2026-09-24T07:27:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.8% · 2026-09-24T08:13:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.8% · 2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.8% · 2026-09-24T09:43:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.8% · 2026-09-24T10:28:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.5% · 2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.5% · 2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.5% · 2026-09-24T12:44:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.5% · 2026-09-24T13:29:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.5% · 2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-09-24T02:56:28+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-09-24T04:26:59+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-09-24T05:12:05+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-09-24T05:57:14+00:00IFS HRES: 82.8% · 2026-09-24T06:42:25+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-09-24T07:27:47+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-09-24T08:13:25+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-09-24T09:43:41+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-09-24T10:28:46+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-09-24T12:44:02+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-09-24T13:29:17+00:00IFS HRES: 87.7% · 2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:00ICON: 79.6% · 2026-09-24T02:56:28+00:00ICON: 79.6% · 2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-09-24T04:26:59+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-09-24T05:12:05+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-09-24T05:57:14+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-09-24T06:42:25+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-09-24T07:27:47+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-09-24T08:13:25+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-09-24T09:43:41+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-09-24T10:28:46+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-09-24T12:44:02+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-09-24T13:29:17+00:00ICON: 80.7% · 2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:0009-24 02:5609-24 08:5809-24 14:16
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-24T02:56:28+00:0051.4%87.5%56.6%82.8%79.6%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:0051.4%87.5%56.6%82.8%79.6%
2026-09-24T04:26:59+00:0051.4%87.5%56.6%82.8%80.7%
2026-09-24T05:12:05+00:0051.4%87.5%50.8%82.8%80.7%
2026-09-24T05:57:14+00:0051.4%87.5%50.8%82.8%80.7%
2026-09-24T06:42:25+00:0051.4%87.5%50.8%82.8%80.7%
2026-09-24T07:27:47+00:0077.9%87.5%50.8%87.7%80.7%
2026-09-24T08:13:25+00:0077.9%87.5%50.8%87.7%80.7%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:0077.9%87.5%50.8%87.7%80.7%
2026-09-24T09:43:41+00:0077.9%87.5%50.8%87.7%80.7%
2026-09-24T10:28:46+00:0077.9%87.5%50.8%87.7%80.7%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:0077.9%99.3%53.5%87.7%80.7%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:0077.9%99.3%53.5%87.7%80.7%
2026-09-24T12:44:02+00:0077.9%99.3%53.5%87.7%80.7%
2026-09-24T13:29:17+00:0073.8%99.3%53.5%87.7%80.7%
2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:0073.2%99.3%53.5%87.7%80.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%90.9°F2.2°F2026-09-24 00:00Pending
IFS HRES88%93.2°F6.7°F2026-09-24 00:00Pending
ICON81%91.5°F6.9°F2026-09-24 00:00Pending
AIFS Single73%88.8°F5.3°F2026-09-24 06:00Pending
National Blend58%87.0°F7.6°F2026-09-23 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 254%85.9°F4.5°F2026-09-24 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%86.0°F5.8°F2026-09-24 02:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260930-TMAX-GE86
Opened Sep 24 · 02:56 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 86°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗