KBNA / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Sep 24 · 02:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

78%

77%

48%

44%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.3¢Risks 62.25u

AIFSNO 37.7¢Risks 37.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.75u · AIFS −37.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	13.7%	—	—	23.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	20.1%	—	—	40.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	20.2%	—	—	45.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	64.6%	—	—	39.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.7%	55.4%	—	—	23.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	49.3%	70.8%	23.0%	3.1%	—	57.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	5.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	63.6%	1.2%	1.6%	—	65.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	76.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	50.8%	83.1%	35.1%	—	65.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	46.9%	—	69.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	23.6%	64.8%	28.1%	—	73.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	3.6%	73.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	50.8%	88.4%	52.5%	—	76.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	41.5%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	57.8%	55.2%	77.2%	34.6%	—	84.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	61.5%	72.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	59.1%	81.6%	70.3%	—	82.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	57.5%	76.9%	79.0%	—	—	86.8%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	56.8%	82.3%	81.7%	69.6%	—	89.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	75.9%	87.6%	—	—	6.6%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	75.7%	90.1%	70.6%	—	84.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	81.7%	88.9%	—	—	86.8%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	53.3%	83.1%	88.1%	69.9%	0.0%	86.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	81.0%	86.5%	0.0%	—	77.7%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	76.7%	82.5%	74.9%	60.4%	76.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	80.9%	80.1%	77.5%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	83.4%	82.6%	86.3%	45.0%	88.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	81.8%	87.2%	87.2%	—	80.9%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	54.0%	80.0%	91.6%	89.3%	66.9%	80.9%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	62.3%	84.5%	86.8%	82.7%	—	86.1%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	91.1%	84.6%	89.2%	70.7%	87.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	88.0%	80.8%	83.8%	—	75.2%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	63.9%	90.4%	84.8%	86.6%	76.2%	80.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	92.1%	93.7%	89.3%	—	94.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	80%	89.3°F	3.3°F	2026-09-23 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	91.5°F	6.3°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
ICON	77%	93.6°F	9.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	87.0°F	8.0°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	48%	86.3°F	4.8°F	2026-09-23 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	44%	85.7°F	5.6°F	2026-09-23 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260930-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 23 · 11:06 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 87°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗