KBNA / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Sep 30 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

84%

80%

56%

29%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.1¢Risks 62.10u

WN2NO 37.9¢Risks 37.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.90u · WN2 −37.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	10.8%	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	27.3%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	16.1%	—	—	34.6%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	16.1%	—	—	38.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	58.4%	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	1.1%	48.6%	—	—	18.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	64.4%	18.0%	2.1%	—	50.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	56.6%	0.7%	1.0%	—	58.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	43.2%	77.8%	28.3%	—	58.3%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	62.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	17.9%	57.1%	21.8%	—	66.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	2.2%	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	42.5%	83.8%	44.2%	—	70.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	33.4%	65.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	49.1%	46.5%	70.1%	26.9%	—	79.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	52.7%	64.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	50.0%	74.9%	61.8%	—	76.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	69.1%	71.6%	—	—	81.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	75.3%	74.5%	60.6%	—	84.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	67.4%	81.7%	—	—	4.0%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	67.0%	84.9%	61.2%	—	77.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	73.8%	83.1%	—	—	80.2%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	42.4%	75.3%	81.7%	59.7%	0.0%	80.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	72.4%	79.4%	0.0%	—	68.5%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	38.5%	66.9%	74.0%	64.8%	48.8%	66.9%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	71.7%	70.7%	67.5%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	74.4%	73.4%	78.3%	33.1%	80.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	72.0%	79.1%	79.1%	—	70.9%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	40.7%	69.3%	85.1%	81.8%	54.0%	70.5%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	48.6%	74.7%	77.9%	72.4%	—	76.8%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	51.4%	83.7%	74.4%	80.9%	57.2%	78.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	36.6%	78.7%	68.9%	72.8%	—	61.9%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	81.9%	73.7%	76.2%	62.4%	68.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	84.0%	86.9%	79.7%	—	87.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	>99%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 04:00	Pending
National Blend	98%	92.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	95%	91.7°F	2.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	91.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	90.9°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
ICON	56%	88.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	85.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260930-TMAX-GE88
Opened Sep 23 · 08:05 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗