KBNA / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST94%Sep 30 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

84%

80%

56%

29%

Consensus

94%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 62.1¢Risks 62.10u

WN2NO 37.9¢Risks 37.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +37.90u · WN2 −37.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-23T08:05:39+00:00	2.1%	84.1%	27.5%	8.9%	16.8%
2026-09-23T08:51:11+00:00	2.1%	84.1%	27.5%	8.9%	16.8%
2026-09-23T09:36:16+00:00	2.1%	84.1%	27.5%	8.9%	16.8%
2026-09-23T10:21:21+00:00	2.1%	84.1%	27.5%	8.9%	16.8%
2026-09-24T02:56:28+00:00	37.3%	70.7%	40.2%	73.6%	73.3%
2026-09-24T03:41:53+00:00	37.3%	70.7%	40.2%	73.6%	73.3%
2026-09-24T04:26:59+00:00	37.3%	70.7%	40.2%	73.6%	71.9%
2026-09-24T05:12:05+00:00	37.3%	70.7%	34.7%	73.6%	71.9%
2026-09-24T05:57:14+00:00	37.3%	70.7%	34.7%	73.6%	71.9%
2026-09-24T06:42:25+00:00	37.3%	70.7%	34.7%	73.6%	71.9%
2026-09-24T07:27:47+00:00	65.3%	70.7%	34.7%	80.4%	71.9%
2026-09-24T08:13:25+00:00	65.3%	70.7%	34.7%	80.4%	71.9%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	65.3%	70.7%	34.7%	80.4%	71.9%
2026-09-24T09:43:41+00:00	65.3%	70.7%	34.7%	80.4%	71.9%
2026-09-24T10:28:46+00:00	65.3%	70.7%	34.7%	80.4%	71.9%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	65.3%	93.9%	36.2%	80.4%	71.9%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	65.3%	93.9%	36.2%	80.4%	71.9%
2026-09-24T12:44:02+00:00	65.3%	93.9%	36.2%	80.4%	71.9%
2026-09-24T13:29:17+00:00	60.4%	93.9%	36.2%	80.4%	71.9%
2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:00	59.6%	93.9%	36.2%	80.4%	71.9%
2026-09-24T15:01:53+00:00	59.6%	90.4%	36.2%	80.4%	71.9%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	59.6%	90.4%	36.2%	80.4%	71.9%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	59.6%	90.4%	36.2%	80.4%	71.9%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	59.6%	90.4%	23.4%	80.4%	71.9%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	59.6%	90.4%	23.4%	80.4%	71.9%
2026-09-24T18:47:43+00:00	59.6%	90.4%	23.4%	80.4%	71.9%
2026-09-24T19:32:53+00:00	67.4%	90.4%	23.4%	80.4%	62.5%
2026-09-24T20:18:01+00:00	67.4%	90.4%	23.4%	80.4%	62.5%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	67.4%	90.4%	23.4%	80.4%	62.5%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	67.4%	90.4%	23.4%	80.4%	62.5%
2026-09-24T22:33:17+00:00	67.4%	90.4%	23.4%	82.1%	62.5%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	67.4%	85.1%	24.0%	82.1%	62.5%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	67.4%	85.1%	24.0%	82.1%	62.5%
2026-09-25T00:48:42+00:00	67.4%	85.1%	24.0%	82.1%	62.5%
2026-09-25T01:33:51+00:00	65.3%	85.1%	24.0%	82.1%	62.5%
2026-09-25T02:18:58+00:00	65.3%	85.1%	24.0%	82.1%	62.5%
2026-09-25T03:04:18+00:00	65.3%	85.1%	24.0%	82.1%	62.5%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	65.3%	85.1%	24.0%	82.1%	62.5%
2026-09-25T04:34:50+00:00	65.3%	85.1%	24.0%	82.1%	34.1%
2026-09-25T05:19:58+00:00	65.3%	85.1%	22.0%	82.1%	34.1%
2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00	65.3%	85.1%	22.0%	82.1%	34.1%
2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00	65.3%	85.1%	22.0%	82.1%	34.1%
2026-09-25T07:35:17+00:00	69.3%	85.1%	22.0%	82.1%	34.1%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00	69.3%	85.1%	22.0%	82.1%	34.1%
2026-09-25T09:05:29+00:00	69.3%	85.1%	22.0%	82.1%	34.1%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00	69.3%	85.1%	22.0%	82.1%	34.1%
2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00	69.3%	85.1%	22.0%	82.1%	34.1%
2026-09-25T11:20:46+00:00	69.3%	87.8%	22.0%	82.1%	34.1%
2026-09-25T12:05:52+00:00	69.3%	87.8%	22.0%	82.1%	34.1%
2026-09-25T12:50:57+00:00	69.3%	87.8%	22.0%	82.1%	34.1%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00	68.6%	87.8%	22.0%	82.1%	34.1%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00	68.6%	87.8%	21.4%	82.1%	34.1%
2026-09-25T15:08:11+00:00	68.6%	87.8%	21.4%	82.1%	34.1%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00	68.6%	87.8%	21.4%	82.1%	34.1%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00	68.6%	87.8%	21.4%	82.1%	58.8%
2026-09-25T17:23:30+00:00	68.6%	87.8%	25.2%	82.1%	58.8%
2026-09-25T18:08:46+00:00	68.6%	87.8%	25.2%	82.1%	58.8%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	68.6%	87.8%	25.2%	82.1%	58.8%
2026-09-25T19:39:33+00:00	70.8%	87.8%	25.2%	75.4%	58.8%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	70.8%	87.8%	25.2%	75.4%	58.8%
2026-09-25T21:10:22+00:00	70.8%	87.8%	25.2%	75.4%	58.8%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	70.8%	87.8%	25.2%	75.4%	58.8%
2026-09-25T22:40:32+00:00	70.8%	87.8%	25.2%	75.4%	58.8%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	70.8%	87.8%	20.2%	75.4%	58.8%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	70.8%	87.8%	20.2%	75.4%	58.8%
2026-09-26T00:55:52+00:00	70.8%	87.8%	20.2%	75.4%	58.8%
2026-09-26T01:41:04+00:00	73.5%	87.8%	20.2%	75.4%	58.8%
2026-09-27T03:19:46+00:00	76.2%	95.2%	14.3%	83.0%	60.8%
2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00	76.2%	95.2%	14.3%	83.0%	60.8%
2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00	76.2%	95.2%	14.3%	83.0%	80.1%
2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00	76.2%	95.2%	31.5%	83.0%	80.1%
2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00	76.2%	95.2%	31.5%	83.0%	80.1%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	76.2%	95.2%	31.5%	83.0%	80.1%
2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00	76.8%	95.2%	31.5%	89.3%	80.1%
2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00	76.8%	95.2%	31.5%	89.3%	80.1%
2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00	76.8%	95.2%	31.5%	89.3%	80.1%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	76.8%	95.2%	31.5%	89.3%	80.1%
2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00	76.8%	95.2%	31.5%	89.3%	80.1%
2026-09-27T11:37:17+00:00	76.8%	99.3%	25.8%	89.3%	80.1%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	76.8%	99.3%	25.8%	89.3%	80.1%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	76.8%	99.3%	25.8%	89.3%	80.1%
2026-09-27T13:52:42+00:00	72.4%	99.3%	25.8%	89.3%	80.1%
2026-09-27T14:40:05+00:00	72.4%	99.3%	25.8%	89.3%	80.1%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	72.4%	99.2%	25.8%	89.3%	80.1%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	72.4%	99.2%	25.8%	89.3%	80.1%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	72.4%	99.2%	16.5%	89.3%	71.4%
2026-09-27T17:40:47+00:00	72.4%	99.2%	16.5%	89.3%	71.4%
2026-09-27T18:25:58+00:00	72.4%	99.2%	16.5%	89.3%	71.4%
2026-09-27T19:11:08+00:00	72.4%	99.2%	16.5%	89.3%	71.4%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	71.6%	99.2%	16.5%	83.6%	71.4%
2026-09-27T20:41:27+00:00	71.6%	99.2%	16.5%	83.6%	71.4%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	71.6%	99.2%	16.5%	83.6%	71.4%
2026-09-27T22:11:36+00:00	71.6%	99.2%	16.5%	83.6%	71.4%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	71.6%	99.3%	15.2%	83.6%	71.4%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	71.6%	99.3%	15.2%	83.6%	71.4%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	71.6%	99.3%	15.2%	83.6%	71.4%
2026-09-28T01:12:04+00:00	71.6%	99.3%	15.2%	83.6%	71.4%
2026-09-28T01:57:11+00:00	73.9%	99.3%	15.2%	83.6%	71.4%
2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00	73.9%	99.3%	15.2%	83.6%	71.4%
2026-09-28T03:27:34+00:00	73.9%	99.3%	15.2%	83.6%	71.4%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	73.9%	99.3%	15.2%	83.6%	71.4%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	73.9%	99.3%	29.4%	83.6%	72.4%
2026-09-28T05:43:44+00:00	73.9%	99.3%	29.4%	83.6%	72.4%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	73.9%	99.3%	29.4%	83.6%	72.4%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	73.9%	99.3%	29.4%	83.6%	72.4%
2026-09-28T07:59:29+00:00	74.9%	99.3%	29.4%	87.8%	72.4%
2026-09-28T08:45:28+00:00	74.9%	99.3%	29.4%	87.8%	72.4%
2026-09-28T09:30:33+00:00	74.9%	99.3%	29.4%	87.8%	72.4%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	74.9%	99.3%	29.4%	87.8%	72.4%
2026-09-28T11:00:49+00:00	74.9%	97.0%	19.1%	87.8%	72.4%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	74.9%	97.0%	19.1%	87.8%	72.4%
2026-09-28T12:31:12+00:00	74.9%	97.0%	19.1%	87.8%	72.4%
2026-09-28T13:16:21+00:00	74.9%	97.0%	19.1%	87.8%	72.4%
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00	68.4%	97.0%	19.1%	87.9%	72.5%
2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00	68.4%	97.0%	19.1%	87.9%	72.5%
2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00	68.4%	97.0%	19.1%	87.9%	72.5%
2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00	68.4%	97.0%	19.1%	87.9%	72.5%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	68.4%	97.0%	11.8%	87.9%	62.3%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00	68.4%	97.0%	11.8%	87.9%	62.3%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00	68.4%	97.0%	11.8%	87.9%	62.3%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	68.4%	97.0%	11.8%	87.9%	62.3%
2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00	73.4%	97.0%	11.8%	79.6%	62.3%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	73.4%	97.0%	11.8%	79.6%	62.3%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00	73.4%	97.0%	11.8%	79.6%	62.3%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	73.4%	97.0%	11.8%	79.6%	62.3%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	73.4%	97.0%	12.3%	79.6%	62.2%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	73.4%	97.0%	12.3%	79.6%	62.2%
2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00	73.4%	97.0%	12.3%	79.6%	62.2%
2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00	73.4%	97.0%	12.3%	79.6%	62.2%
2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00	77.1%	97.0%	12.3%	79.6%	62.2%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	77.1%	97.0%	12.3%	79.6%	62.2%
2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00	77.1%	97.0%	12.3%	79.6%	62.2%
2026-09-29T04:21:23+00:00	77.1%	97.0%	12.3%	79.6%	62.2%
2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00	77.1%	97.0%	28.6%	79.6%	59.0%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	77.1%	97.0%	28.6%	79.6%	59.0%
2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00	77.1%	97.0%	28.6%	79.6%	59.0%
2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00	79.9%	97.0%	28.6%	89.6%	59.0%
2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00	79.9%	97.0%	28.6%	89.6%	59.0%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	79.9%	97.0%	28.6%	89.6%	59.0%
2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00	79.9%	97.0%	28.6%	89.6%	59.0%
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00	79.9%	97.0%	28.6%	89.6%	59.0%
2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00	79.9%	95.3%	28.6%	89.6%	59.0%
2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00	79.9%	95.3%	28.6%	89.6%	59.0%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	79.9%	95.3%	28.6%	89.6%	59.0%
2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00	72.3%	95.3%	28.6%	89.6%	59.0%
2026-09-29T14:11:40+00:00	71.5%	95.2%	28.7%	89.6%	59.0%
2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00	71.5%	95.2%	28.7%	89.6%	59.0%
2026-09-29T15:42:15+00:00	71.5%	95.3%	28.7%	89.6%	59.0%
2026-09-29T16:27:41+00:00	71.5%	95.3%	28.7%	89.6%	52.3%
2026-09-29T17:12:51+00:00	71.5%	95.3%	12.8%	89.6%	52.3%
2026-09-29T17:57:58+00:00	71.5%	95.3%	12.8%	89.6%	52.3%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	71.5%	95.3%	12.8%	89.6%	52.3%
2026-09-29T19:28:13+00:00	75.6%	95.3%	12.8%	83.9%	52.3%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	75.6%	95.3%	12.8%	83.9%	52.3%
2026-09-29T20:58:47+00:00	75.6%	95.3%	12.8%	83.9%	52.3%
2026-09-29T21:43:55+00:00	75.6%	95.3%	12.8%	83.9%	52.3%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	75.6%	95.3%	12.8%	83.9%	52.3%
2026-09-29T23:14:14+00:00	75.6%	95.2%	10.5%	83.9%	52.3%
2026-09-29T23:59:27+00:00	75.6%	95.2%	10.5%	83.9%	52.3%
2026-09-30T00:44:33+00:00	75.6%	95.2%	10.5%	83.9%	52.3%
2026-09-30T01:29:51+00:00	80.0%	95.2%	10.5%	83.9%	52.3%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	80.0%	95.2%	10.5%	83.9%	52.3%
2026-09-30T03:00:08+00:00	80.0%	95.2%	10.5%	83.9%	52.3%
2026-09-30T03:45:22+00:00	80.0%	95.2%	10.5%	83.9%	52.3%
2026-09-30T04:30:38+00:00	80.0%	95.2%	10.5%	83.9%	55.8%
2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00	80.0%	95.2%	29.0%	83.9%	55.8%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	80.0%	95.2%	29.0%	83.9%	55.8%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	80.0%	95.2%	29.0%	83.9%	55.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	>99%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 04:00	Pending
National Blend	98%	92.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	95%	91.7°F	2.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	91.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	90.9°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
ICON	56%	88.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	85.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260930-TMAX-GE88
Opened Sep 23 · 08:05 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗