KBNA / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

78%

69%

52%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.1¢Risks 50.10u

WN2NO 49.9¢Risks 49.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.90u · WN2 −49.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	8.4%	—	—	15.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	22.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	12.7%	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	12.5%	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	51.9%	—	—	27.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.7%	41.9%	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	57.7%	13.7%	1.3%	—	43.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	49.3%	0.4%	0.6%	—	51.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	63.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	35.8%	71.7%	22.2%	—	50.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	13.1%	49.2%	16.4%	—	58.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	1.4%	58.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	34.5%	78.1%	36.1%	—	62.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	26.0%	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	37.9%	62.1%	20.2%	—	72.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	43.7%	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	40.9%	67.0%	52.8%	—	68.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	38.8%	60.3%	63.0%	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	67.0%	66.1%	51.0%	—	77.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	31.7%	58.0%	74.3%	—	—	2.2%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	57.2%	78.1%	51.0%	—	68.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	64.5%	75.5%	—	—	72.1%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	32.1%	65.9%	73.6%	48.9%	0.0%	71.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	62.2%	70.4%	0.0%	—	57.8%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	55.8%	63.7%	53.5%	37.4%	55.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	60.7%	59.5%	56.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	63.4%	62.3%	68.0%	22.7%	71.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	60.2%	68.7%	68.7%	—	59.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	56.7%	76.0%	71.6%	40.7%	58.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	35.0%	62.3%	66.2%	59.7%	—	65.0%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	37.2%	73.2%	61.4%	69.5%	42.8%	66.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	66.2%	54.5%	59.0%	—	47.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	69.7%	59.4%	62.4%	46.8%	53.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	71.9%	75.9%	66.1%	—	77.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	92.5°F	3.0°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	92.3°F	5.0°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	90.8°F	4.6°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	89.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 14:00	Pending
ICON	52%	88.8°F	4.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	88.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	83.3°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260930-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗