KBNA / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

78%

69%

52%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.1¢Risks 50.10u

WN2NO 49.9¢Risks 49.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.90u · WN2 −49.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T02:26:22+00:00	66.5%	79.8%	14.2%	69.7%	52.0%
2026-09-26T03:11:44+00:00	66.5%	79.8%	14.2%	69.7%	52.0%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	66.5%	79.8%	14.2%	69.7%	52.0%
2026-09-26T04:42:05+00:00	66.5%	79.8%	14.2%	69.7%	49.2%
2026-09-26T05:27:18+00:00	66.5%	79.8%	22.3%	69.7%	49.2%
2026-09-26T06:12:25+00:00	66.5%	79.8%	22.3%	69.7%	49.2%
2026-09-26T06:57:30+00:00	66.5%	79.8%	22.3%	69.7%	49.2%
2026-09-26T07:42:58+00:00	70.5%	79.8%	22.3%	83.9%	49.2%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	70.5%	79.8%	22.3%	83.9%	49.2%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	70.5%	79.8%	22.3%	83.9%	49.2%
2026-09-26T09:58:51+00:00	70.5%	79.8%	22.3%	83.9%	49.2%
2026-09-26T10:44:04+00:00	70.5%	79.8%	22.3%	83.9%	49.2%
2026-09-26T11:29:16+00:00	70.5%	90.9%	19.4%	83.9%	49.2%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	70.5%	90.9%	19.4%	83.9%	49.2%
2026-09-26T12:59:35+00:00	70.5%	90.9%	19.4%	83.9%	49.2%
2026-09-26T13:44:43+00:00	68.2%	90.9%	19.4%	83.9%	49.2%
2026-09-26T14:32:08+00:00	68.2%	90.9%	19.4%	84.0%	49.2%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	68.2%	90.9%	19.4%	84.0%	49.2%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	68.2%	90.9%	19.4%	84.0%	49.2%
2026-09-26T16:47:42+00:00	68.2%	90.9%	19.4%	84.0%	52.5%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	68.2%	90.9%	19.4%	84.0%	52.5%
2026-09-26T18:17:59+00:00	68.2%	90.9%	19.4%	84.0%	52.5%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	68.2%	90.9%	19.4%	84.0%	52.5%
2026-09-26T19:48:18+00:00	65.1%	90.9%	19.4%	77.5%	52.5%
2026-09-26T20:33:26+00:00	65.1%	90.9%	19.4%	77.5%	52.5%
2026-09-26T21:18:32+00:00	65.1%	90.9%	19.4%	77.5%	52.5%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	65.1%	90.9%	19.4%	77.5%	52.5%
2026-09-26T22:48:45+00:00	65.1%	90.9%	19.4%	77.5%	52.5%
2026-09-26T23:33:55+00:00	65.1%	90.9%	9.3%	77.5%	52.5%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	65.1%	90.9%	9.3%	77.5%	52.5%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	65.1%	90.9%	9.3%	77.5%	52.5%
2026-09-27T01:49:25+00:00	69.0%	90.9%	9.3%	77.5%	52.5%
2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00	69.0%	90.9%	9.3%	77.5%	52.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	92.5°F	3.0°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	78%	92.3°F	5.0°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	69%	90.8°F	4.6°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	89.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 14:00	Pending
ICON	52%	88.8°F	4.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	88.7°F	3.8°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	9%	83.3°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260930-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 26 · 02:26 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗