KBNA / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Sep 30 · 06:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

68%

64%

33%

13%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 46.9¢Risks 46.85u

WN2NO 53.1¢Risks 53.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +53.15u · WN2 −53.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	6.4%	—	—	12.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	9.8%	—	—	24.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	9.6%	—	—	27.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	45.5%	—	—	22.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.4%	35.5%	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	50.7%	10.2%	0.8%	—	36.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	42.0%	0.2%	0.4%	—	44.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	56.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	28.9%	64.9%	16.9%	—	43.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	9.3%	41.3%	11.9%	—	50.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	26.3%	0.8%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	27.2%	71.4%	28.6%	—	54.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	19.6%	48.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	32.2%	29.9%	53.5%	14.6%	—	64.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	35.1%	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	32.2%	58.2%	43.6%	—	60.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	50.9%	53.8%	—	—	65.7%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	57.7%	56.8%	41.3%	—	69.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	48.0%	65.6%	—	—	1.2%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	46.9%	69.7%	40.8%	—	59.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	54.2%	66.5%	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	55.5%	63.9%	38.2%	0.0%	61.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	51.1%	60.0%	0.0%	—	46.6%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	44.2%	52.3%	41.9%	27.0%	44.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	22.5%	48.8%	47.6%	44.0%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	24.6%	51.2%	50.0%	56.2%	14.4%	59.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	47.4%	56.4%	56.4%	—	46.1%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	43.3%	64.4%	59.3%	28.4%	44.6%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	48.6%	52.8%	45.8%	—	51.4%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	60.1%	47.1%	55.8%	29.3%	52.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	13.6%	51.5%	39.5%	44.0%	—	32.5%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	54.7%	43.7%	46.8%	31.7%	37.6%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	56.6%	61.4%	50.0%	—	63.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	94%	93.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 04:00	Pending
National Blend	88%	92.1°F	2.2°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	91.7°F	2.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	68%	91.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	90.9°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
ICON	33%	88.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	85.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260930-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 23 · 08:05 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 90°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗