KBNA / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Sep 30 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

57%

54%

21%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.0¢Risks 35.00u

WN2NO 65.0¢Risks 65.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.00u · WN2 −65.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-09-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	4.8%	—	—	9.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	7.4%	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	7.1%	—	—	22.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	36.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	39.1%	—	—	17.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	29.4%	—	—	8.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	43.7%	7.4%	0.5%	—	29.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	35.0%	0.1%	0.2%	—	37.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	21.1%	22.8%	57.6%	12.5%	—	35.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	39.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	6.4%	33.7%	8.4%	—	42.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	0.4%	41.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	20.7%	63.9%	21.9%	—	45.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	14.2%	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	22.8%	44.8%	10.1%	—	56.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	27.1%	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	24.4%	49.1%	34.7%	—	50.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	41.5%	44.3%	—	—	56.6%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	21.0%	48.0%	47.1%	32.1%	—	60.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	16.4%	38.2%	56.0%	—	—	0.6%
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	36.9%	60.2%	31.2%	—	49.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	43.7%	56.3%	—	—	52.1%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	44.5%	53.3%	28.2%	0.0%	51.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	40.0%	48.9%	0.0%	—	35.7%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	12.1%	33.1%	40.8%	31.0%	18.3%	33.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	14.5%	37.0%	35.9%	32.5%	—	0.0%
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	38.9%	37.7%	43.8%	8.5%	47.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	34.9%	43.6%	43.6%	—	33.7%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	30.7%	51.3%	46.0%	18.2%	31.9%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	35.0%	39.0%	32.5%	—	37.7%
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	45.7%	33.1%	41.4%	18.2%	38.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	36.6%	26.0%	29.8%	—	20.2%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	39.1%	29.0%	31.7%	19.2%	23.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	40.2%	45.1%	33.9%	—	46.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	68%	91.7°F	2.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	91.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	91.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-29 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	90.9°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
ICON	21%	87.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	83.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260930-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 24 · 15:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗