KBNA / Wed Sep 30 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Sep 30 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

57%

54%

21%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.0¢Risks 35.00u

WN2NO 65.0¢Risks 65.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +65.00u · WN2 −65.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-30T03:45:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T15:01:53+00:00	37.5%	50.0%	15.5%	65.8%	55.8%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	37.5%	50.0%	15.5%	65.8%	55.8%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	37.5%	50.0%	15.5%	65.8%	55.8%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	37.5%	50.0%	8.3%	65.8%	55.8%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	37.5%	50.0%	8.3%	65.8%	55.8%
2026-09-24T18:47:43+00:00	37.5%	50.0%	8.3%	65.8%	55.8%
2026-09-24T19:32:53+00:00	45.5%	50.0%	8.3%	65.8%	45.4%
2026-09-24T20:18:01+00:00	45.5%	50.0%	8.3%	65.8%	45.4%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	45.5%	50.0%	8.3%	65.8%	45.4%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	45.5%	50.0%	8.3%	65.8%	45.4%
2026-09-24T22:33:17+00:00	45.5%	50.0%	8.3%	67.9%	45.4%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	45.5%	41.7%	8.6%	67.9%	45.4%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	45.5%	41.7%	8.6%	67.9%	45.4%
2026-09-25T00:48:42+00:00	45.5%	41.7%	8.6%	67.9%	45.4%
2026-09-25T01:33:51+00:00	43.3%	41.7%	8.6%	67.9%	45.4%
2026-09-25T02:18:58+00:00	43.3%	41.7%	8.6%	67.9%	45.4%
2026-09-25T03:04:18+00:00	43.3%	41.7%	8.6%	67.9%	45.4%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	43.3%	41.7%	8.6%	67.9%	45.4%
2026-09-25T04:34:50+00:00	43.3%	41.7%	8.6%	67.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T05:19:58+00:00	43.3%	41.7%	7.6%	67.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T06:05:05+00:00	43.3%	41.7%	7.6%	67.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T06:50:10+00:00	43.3%	41.7%	7.6%	67.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T07:35:17+00:00	46.0%	41.7%	7.6%	67.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T08:20:24+00:00	46.0%	41.7%	7.6%	67.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T09:05:29+00:00	46.0%	41.7%	7.6%	67.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T09:50:34+00:00	46.0%	41.7%	7.6%	67.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T10:35:40+00:00	46.0%	41.7%	7.6%	67.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T11:20:46+00:00	46.0%	56.6%	7.6%	67.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T12:05:52+00:00	46.0%	56.6%	7.6%	67.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T12:50:57+00:00	46.0%	56.6%	7.6%	67.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T13:36:04+00:00	45.2%	56.6%	7.6%	67.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T14:23:06+00:00	45.2%	56.6%	7.3%	67.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T15:08:11+00:00	45.2%	56.6%	7.3%	67.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T15:53:17+00:00	45.2%	56.6%	7.3%	67.9%	17.8%
2026-09-25T16:38:23+00:00	45.2%	56.6%	7.3%	67.9%	38.5%
2026-09-25T17:23:30+00:00	45.2%	56.6%	8.4%	67.9%	38.5%
2026-09-25T18:08:46+00:00	45.2%	56.6%	8.4%	67.9%	38.5%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	45.2%	56.6%	8.4%	67.9%	38.5%
2026-09-25T19:39:33+00:00	47.6%	56.6%	8.4%	56.8%	38.5%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	47.6%	56.6%	8.4%	56.8%	38.5%
2026-09-25T21:10:22+00:00	47.6%	56.6%	8.4%	56.8%	38.5%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	47.6%	56.6%	8.4%	56.8%	38.5%
2026-09-25T22:40:32+00:00	47.6%	56.6%	8.4%	56.8%	38.5%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	47.6%	56.6%	6.1%	56.8%	38.5%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	47.6%	56.6%	6.1%	56.8%	38.5%
2026-09-26T00:55:52+00:00	47.6%	56.6%	6.1%	56.8%	38.5%
2026-09-26T01:41:04+00:00	50.8%	56.6%	6.1%	56.8%	38.5%
2026-09-27T03:19:46+00:00	52.6%	74.8%	3.4%	64.0%	36.0%
2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00	52.6%	74.8%	3.4%	64.0%	36.0%
2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00	52.6%	74.8%	3.4%	64.0%	53.1%
2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00	52.6%	74.8%	10.7%	64.0%	53.1%
2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00	52.6%	74.8%	10.7%	64.0%	53.1%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	52.6%	74.8%	10.7%	64.0%	53.1%
2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00	51.8%	74.8%	10.7%	71.8%	53.1%
2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00	51.8%	74.8%	10.7%	71.8%	53.1%
2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00	51.8%	74.8%	10.7%	71.8%	53.1%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	51.8%	74.8%	10.7%	71.8%	53.1%
2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00	51.8%	74.8%	10.7%	71.8%	53.1%
2026-09-27T11:37:17+00:00	51.8%	85.8%	7.2%	71.8%	53.1%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	51.8%	85.8%	7.2%	71.8%	53.1%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	51.8%	85.8%	7.2%	71.8%	53.1%
2026-09-27T13:52:42+00:00	46.4%	85.8%	7.2%	71.8%	53.1%
2026-09-27T14:40:05+00:00	46.4%	85.8%	7.2%	71.8%	53.1%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	46.4%	84.7%	7.2%	71.8%	53.1%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	46.4%	84.7%	7.2%	71.8%	53.1%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	46.4%	84.7%	3.7%	71.8%	41.9%
2026-09-27T17:40:47+00:00	46.4%	84.7%	3.7%	71.8%	41.9%
2026-09-27T18:25:58+00:00	46.4%	84.7%	3.7%	71.8%	41.9%
2026-09-27T19:11:08+00:00	46.4%	84.7%	3.7%	71.8%	41.9%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	45.4%	84.7%	3.7%	62.2%	41.9%
2026-09-27T20:41:27+00:00	45.4%	84.7%	3.7%	62.2%	41.9%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	45.4%	84.7%	3.7%	62.2%	41.9%
2026-09-27T22:11:36+00:00	45.4%	84.7%	3.7%	62.2%	41.9%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	45.4%	85.8%	3.3%	62.2%	41.9%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	45.4%	85.8%	3.3%	62.2%	41.9%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	45.4%	85.8%	3.3%	62.2%	41.9%
2026-09-28T01:12:04+00:00	45.4%	85.8%	3.3%	62.2%	41.9%
2026-09-28T01:57:11+00:00	48.2%	85.8%	3.3%	62.2%	41.9%
2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00	48.2%	85.8%	3.3%	62.2%	41.9%
2026-09-28T03:27:34+00:00	48.2%	85.8%	3.3%	62.2%	41.9%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	48.2%	85.8%	3.3%	62.2%	41.9%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	48.2%	85.8%	8.8%	62.2%	39.9%
2026-09-28T05:43:44+00:00	48.2%	85.8%	8.8%	62.2%	39.9%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	48.2%	85.8%	8.8%	62.2%	39.9%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	48.2%	85.8%	8.8%	62.2%	39.9%
2026-09-28T07:59:29+00:00	48.1%	85.8%	8.8%	66.9%	39.9%
2026-09-28T08:45:28+00:00	48.1%	85.8%	8.8%	66.9%	39.9%
2026-09-28T09:30:33+00:00	48.1%	85.8%	8.8%	66.9%	39.9%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	48.1%	85.8%	8.8%	66.9%	39.9%
2026-09-28T11:00:49+00:00	48.1%	72.5%	4.2%	66.9%	39.9%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	48.1%	72.5%	4.2%	66.9%	39.9%
2026-09-28T12:31:12+00:00	48.1%	72.5%	4.2%	66.9%	39.9%
2026-09-28T13:16:21+00:00	48.1%	72.5%	4.2%	66.9%	39.9%
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00	40.5%	72.5%	4.2%	66.9%	39.9%
2026-09-29T04:21:23+00:00	51.0%	72.5%	2.2%	53.9%	29.5%
2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00	51.0%	72.5%	7.9%	53.9%	26.6%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	51.0%	72.5%	7.9%	53.9%	26.6%
2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00	51.0%	72.5%	7.9%	53.9%	26.6%
2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00	53.9%	72.5%	7.9%	67.5%	26.6%
2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00	53.9%	72.5%	7.9%	67.5%	26.6%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	53.9%	72.5%	7.9%	67.5%	26.6%
2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00	53.9%	72.5%	7.9%	67.5%	26.6%
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00	53.9%	72.5%	7.9%	67.5%	26.6%
2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00	53.9%	68.4%	7.9%	67.5%	26.6%
2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00	53.9%	68.4%	7.9%	67.5%	26.6%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	53.9%	68.4%	7.9%	67.5%	26.6%
2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00	44.1%	68.4%	7.9%	67.5%	26.6%
2026-09-29T14:11:40+00:00	43.1%	68.3%	7.9%	67.5%	26.6%
2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00	43.1%	68.3%	7.9%	67.5%	26.6%
2026-09-29T15:42:15+00:00	43.1%	68.4%	7.9%	67.5%	26.6%
2026-09-29T16:27:41+00:00	43.1%	68.4%	7.9%	67.5%	21.3%
2026-09-29T17:12:51+00:00	43.1%	68.4%	2.2%	67.5%	21.3%
2026-09-29T17:57:58+00:00	43.1%	68.4%	2.2%	67.5%	21.3%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	43.1%	68.4%	2.2%	67.5%	21.3%
2026-09-29T19:28:13+00:00	48.0%	68.4%	2.2%	57.4%	21.3%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	48.0%	68.4%	2.2%	57.4%	21.3%
2026-09-29T20:58:47+00:00	48.0%	68.4%	2.2%	57.4%	21.3%
2026-09-29T21:43:55+00:00	48.0%	68.4%	2.2%	57.4%	21.3%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	48.0%	68.4%	2.2%	57.4%	21.3%
2026-09-29T23:14:14+00:00	48.0%	68.3%	1.7%	57.4%	21.3%
2026-09-29T23:59:27+00:00	48.0%	68.3%	1.7%	57.4%	21.3%
2026-09-30T00:44:33+00:00	48.0%	68.3%	1.7%	57.4%	21.3%
2026-09-30T01:29:51+00:00	53.9%	68.3%	1.7%	57.4%	21.3%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	53.9%	68.3%	1.7%	57.4%	21.3%
2026-09-30T03:00:08+00:00	53.9%	68.3%	1.7%	57.4%	21.3%
2026-09-30T03:45:22+00:00	53.9%	68.3%	1.7%	57.4%	21.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	68%	91.7°F	2.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	91.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	91.2°F	3.7°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	91.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-29 15:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	90.9°F	4.0°F	2026-09-29 18:00	Pending
ICON	21%	87.7°F	3.5°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	83.2°F	3.4°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260930-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 24 · 15:01 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Wed Sep 30

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗