KBNA / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 26 · 04:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 11.9¢Risks 11.90u

EPSNO 88.1¢Risks 88.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +88.10u · EPS −88.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	1.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	0.5%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.1%	0.0%	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	11.2%	0.0%	—	1.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.0%	6.2%	2.5%	—	3.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	1.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.6%	7.6%	1.4%	—	5.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	6.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.6%	8.4%	1.1%	—	4.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	0.0%	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	1.3%	6.3%	0.1%	—	4.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.8%	4.9%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	2.5%	6.5%	0.1%	—	6.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.8%	5.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.6%	4.6%	0.9%	—	3.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	2.3%	2.9%	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.6%	4.6%	0.9%	—	3.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.1%	3.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	4.4%	0.6%	—	1.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	2.2%	4.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.6%	2.0%	0.4%	—	1.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.4%	1.5%	0.0%	—	0.8%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.4%	2.4%	0.7%	0.9%	0.6%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	2.3%	0.2%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.1%	1.7%	0.3%	0.7%	0.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	0.8%	0.2%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.7%	0.1%	0.4%	0.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.3%	0.1%	—	0.1%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.1%	0.5%	0.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.2%	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	24%	94.7°F	6.7°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
ICON	12%	92.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	89.0°F	8.8°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	90.5°F	5.3°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	89.6°F	4.5°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	87.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-26 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	90.9°F	3.1°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261001-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗