KBNA / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 26 · 04:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 11.9¢Risks 11.90u

EPSNO 88.1¢Risks 88.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +88.10u · EPS −88.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-26T04:42:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-24T07:27:47+00:00	7.3%	0.3%	1.3%	16.1%	8.3%
2026-09-24T08:13:25+00:00	7.3%	0.3%	1.3%	16.1%	8.3%
2026-09-24T08:58:36+00:00	7.3%	0.3%	1.3%	16.1%	8.3%
2026-09-24T09:43:41+00:00	7.3%	0.3%	1.3%	16.1%	8.3%
2026-09-24T10:28:46+00:00	7.3%	0.3%	1.3%	16.1%	8.3%
2026-09-24T11:13:52+00:00	7.3%	2.7%	1.3%	16.1%	8.3%
2026-09-24T11:58:57+00:00	7.3%	2.7%	1.3%	16.1%	8.3%
2026-09-24T12:44:02+00:00	7.3%	2.7%	1.3%	16.1%	8.3%
2026-09-24T13:29:17+00:00	7.5%	2.7%	1.3%	16.1%	8.3%
2026-09-24T14:16:41+00:00	7.3%	2.8%	1.3%	16.1%	8.3%
2026-09-24T15:01:53+00:00	7.3%	2.5%	1.3%	16.1%	8.3%
2026-09-24T15:47:18+00:00	7.3%	2.4%	1.3%	16.1%	8.3%
2026-09-24T16:32:28+00:00	7.3%	2.4%	1.3%	16.1%	8.3%
2026-09-24T17:17:33+00:00	7.3%	2.4%	1.1%	16.1%	8.3%
2026-09-24T18:02:39+00:00	7.3%	2.4%	1.1%	16.1%	8.3%
2026-09-24T18:47:43+00:00	7.3%	2.4%	1.1%	16.1%	8.3%
2026-09-24T19:32:53+00:00	7.5%	2.4%	1.1%	16.1%	26.3%
2026-09-24T20:18:01+00:00	7.5%	2.4%	1.1%	16.1%	26.3%
2026-09-24T21:03:07+00:00	7.5%	2.4%	1.1%	16.1%	26.3%
2026-09-24T21:48:12+00:00	7.5%	2.4%	1.1%	16.1%	26.3%
2026-09-24T22:33:17+00:00	7.5%	2.4%	1.1%	16.1%	26.3%
2026-09-24T23:18:23+00:00	7.5%	2.3%	1.2%	16.1%	26.3%
2026-09-25T00:03:30+00:00	7.5%	2.3%	1.2%	16.1%	26.3%
2026-09-25T00:48:42+00:00	7.5%	2.3%	1.2%	16.1%	26.3%
2026-09-25T01:33:51+00:00	6.6%	2.3%	1.2%	16.1%	26.3%
2026-09-25T02:18:58+00:00	6.6%	2.3%	1.2%	16.1%	26.3%
2026-09-25T03:04:18+00:00	6.6%	2.3%	1.2%	16.1%	26.3%
2026-09-25T03:49:45+00:00	6.6%	2.3%	1.2%	16.1%	26.3%
2026-09-25T18:08:47+00:00	6.4%	0.3%	1.6%	16.2%	12.1%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	6.4%	0.3%	1.6%	16.2%	12.1%
2026-09-25T19:39:33+00:00	5.8%	0.3%	1.6%	23.5%	12.1%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	5.8%	0.3%	1.6%	23.5%	12.1%
2026-09-25T21:10:22+00:00	5.8%	0.3%	1.6%	23.5%	12.1%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	5.8%	0.3%	1.6%	23.5%	12.1%
2026-09-25T22:40:32+00:00	5.8%	0.3%	1.6%	23.5%	12.1%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	5.8%	0.3%	1.5%	23.5%	12.1%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	5.8%	0.3%	1.5%	23.5%	12.1%
2026-09-26T00:55:52+00:00	5.8%	0.3%	1.5%	23.5%	12.1%
2026-09-26T01:41:04+00:00	4.6%	0.3%	1.5%	23.5%	12.1%
2026-09-26T02:26:22+00:00	4.6%	0.3%	1.5%	23.5%	12.1%
2026-09-26T03:11:44+00:00	4.6%	0.3%	1.5%	23.5%	12.1%
2026-09-26T03:56:57+00:00	4.6%	0.3%	1.5%	23.5%	12.1%
2026-09-26T04:42:05+00:00	4.6%	0.3%	1.5%	23.5%	12.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	24%	94.7°F	6.7°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
ICON	12%	92.7°F	5.8°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
National Blend	12%	89.0°F	8.8°F	2026-09-25 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	90.5°F	5.3°F	2026-09-25 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	89.6°F	4.5°F	2026-09-25 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	<1%	87.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-26 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	90.9°F	3.1°F	2026-09-25 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261001-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗