KBNA / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Sep 25 · 02:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

74%

72%

71%

58%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 69.8¢Risks 69.85u

WN2NO 30.2¢Risks 30.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +30.15u · WN2 −30.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	5.6%	—	—	30.3%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	57.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	25.7%	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	3.5%	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	0.9%	—	—	26.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	17.1%	4.3%	—	—	41.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	81.6%	8.7%	—	46.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	4.9%	74.6%	59.4%	—	62.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	48.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	56.1%	80.5%	53.8%	—	76.6%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	72.6%	84.6%	54.0%	—	74.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	9.9%	85.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	61.5%	83.8%	32.2%	—	79.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	52.6%	56.8%	82.2%	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	75.2%	86.9%	24.8%	—	86.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	78.5%	86.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	73.4%	86.1%	65.3%	—	82.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	80.4%	82.9%	—	—	85.2%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	78.2%	89.3%	71.3%	—	86.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	51.0%	83.6%	89.0%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	79.5%	91.8%	72.4%	—	83.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	87.9%	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	60.8%	87.5%	89.1%	74.5%	—	88.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	88.2%	88.8%	0.0%	—	83.9%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	90.6%	93.5%	85.3%	87.3%	84.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	60.7%	87.4%	94.8%	79.2%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	92.9%	94.8%	84.1%	90.0%	88.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	92.3%	92.8%	85.7%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	59.3%	91.1%	94.3%	80.0%	92.1%	84.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	91.9%	91.9%	84.5%	—	86.1%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	66.9%	95.3%	90.5%	87.0%	96.3%	82.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	63.3%	93.0%	93.5%	88.0%	—	81.9%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	93.9%	97.4%	89.8%	96.6%	84.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	93.2%	95.9%	90.8%	—	80.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	82%	93.2°F	6.4°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	91.1°F	5.6°F	2026-09-24 18:00	Pending
ICON	72%	93.3°F	9.8°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	71%	90.1°F	4.7°F	2026-09-24 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	58%	88.5°F	4.9°F	2026-09-24 12:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	88.0°F	7.4°F	2026-09-23 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261001-TMAX-GE88
Opened Sep 24 · 07:27 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 88°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗