KBNA / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Sep 27 · 13:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

85%

77%

73%

69%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 84.5¢Risks 84.45u

WN2NO 15.5¢Risks 15.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +15.55u · WN2 −15.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	10.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	4.1%	—	—	25.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	51.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	21.0%	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	2.5%	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	0.6%	—	—	21.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	13.2%	3.0%	—	—	35.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	76.5%	6.3%	—	39.6%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	3.3%	68.3%	52.2%	—	55.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	40.2%	48.5%	74.9%	46.2%	—	70.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	65.5%	79.4%	46.0%	—	67.7%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	6.8%	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	53.3%	78.1%	25.1%	—	72.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	48.3%	76.0%	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	67.8%	81.6%	18.4%	—	81.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	71.3%	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	65.3%	80.4%	56.4%	—	76.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	46.2%	73.2%	76.2%	—	—	79.0%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	70.4%	84.1%	62.4%	—	81.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	76.6%	83.6%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	71.5%	87.2%	63.1%	—	76.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	81.7%	88.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	81.0%	83.1%	64.9%	—	81.7%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	81.7%	82.5%	0.0%	—	76.0%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	84.7%	89.0%	77.6%	80.1%	75.8%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	80.1%	90.8%	69.6%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	87.6%	90.5%	75.4%	83.4%	81.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	86.5%	87.2%	77.2%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	84.3%	89.3%	69.3%	85.9%	74.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	55.6%	85.3%	85.3%	74.7%	—	76.8%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	90.5%	82.8%	77.8%	92.2%	72.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	86.4%	87.2%	78.7%	—	70.2%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	87.5%	93.9%	80.8%	92.3%	73.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	85.9%	90.8%	81.9%	—	67.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	93.6°F	2.0°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	93.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
ICON	77%	92.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	91.3°F	4.6°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	90.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	89.7°F	5.6°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	89.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261001-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗