KBNA / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Sep 27 · 13:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

85%

77%

73%

69%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 84.5¢Risks 84.45u

WN2NO 15.5¢Risks 15.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +15.55u · WN2 −15.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T13:52:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-25T18:08:46+00:00	70.7%	78.1%	61.3%	76.9%	66.3%
2026-09-25T18:54:07+00:00	70.7%	78.1%	61.3%	76.9%	66.3%
2026-09-25T19:39:33+00:00	68.7%	78.1%	61.3%	82.4%	66.3%
2026-09-25T20:25:17+00:00	68.7%	78.1%	61.3%	82.4%	66.3%
2026-09-25T21:10:22+00:00	68.7%	78.1%	61.3%	82.4%	66.3%
2026-09-25T21:55:28+00:00	68.7%	78.1%	61.3%	82.4%	66.3%
2026-09-25T22:40:32+00:00	68.7%	78.1%	61.3%	82.4%	66.3%
2026-09-25T23:25:38+00:00	68.7%	78.1%	59.6%	82.4%	66.3%
2026-09-26T00:10:44+00:00	68.7%	78.1%	59.6%	82.4%	66.3%
2026-09-26T00:55:52+00:00	68.7%	78.1%	59.6%	82.4%	66.3%
2026-09-26T01:41:04+00:00	64.6%	78.1%	59.6%	82.4%	66.3%
2026-09-26T14:32:08+00:00	72.1%	98.5%	70.8%	84.9%	76.4%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	72.1%	98.5%	70.8%	84.9%	76.4%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	72.1%	98.5%	70.8%	84.9%	76.4%
2026-09-26T16:47:42+00:00	72.1%	98.5%	70.8%	84.9%	67.2%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	72.1%	98.5%	70.8%	84.9%	67.2%
2026-09-26T18:17:59+00:00	72.1%	98.5%	70.8%	84.9%	67.2%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	72.1%	98.5%	70.8%	84.9%	67.2%
2026-09-26T19:48:18+00:00	72.1%	98.5%	70.8%	73.8%	67.2%
2026-09-26T20:33:26+00:00	72.1%	98.5%	70.8%	73.8%	67.2%
2026-09-26T21:18:32+00:00	72.1%	98.5%	70.8%	73.8%	67.2%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	72.1%	98.5%	70.8%	73.8%	67.2%
2026-09-26T22:48:45+00:00	72.1%	98.5%	70.8%	73.8%	67.2%
2026-09-26T23:33:55+00:00	72.1%	98.5%	56.6%	73.8%	67.2%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	72.1%	98.5%	56.6%	73.8%	67.2%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	72.1%	98.5%	56.6%	73.8%	67.2%
2026-09-27T01:49:25+00:00	74.1%	98.5%	56.6%	73.8%	67.2%
2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00	74.1%	98.5%	56.6%	73.8%	67.2%
2026-09-27T03:19:46+00:00	74.1%	98.5%	56.6%	73.8%	67.2%
2026-09-27T04:05:13+00:00	74.1%	98.5%	56.6%	73.8%	67.2%
2026-09-27T04:50:19+00:00	74.1%	98.5%	56.6%	73.8%	76.3%
2026-09-27T05:35:28+00:00	74.1%	98.5%	74.8%	73.8%	76.3%
2026-09-27T06:20:38+00:00	74.1%	98.5%	74.8%	73.8%	76.3%
2026-09-27T07:05:44+00:00	74.1%	98.5%	74.8%	73.8%	76.3%
2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00	76.2%	98.5%	74.8%	85.4%	76.3%
2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00	76.2%	98.5%	74.8%	85.4%	76.3%
2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00	76.2%	98.5%	74.8%	85.4%	76.3%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	76.2%	98.5%	74.8%	85.4%	76.3%
2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00	76.2%	98.5%	74.8%	85.4%	76.3%
2026-09-27T11:37:17+00:00	76.2%	99.5%	69.4%	85.4%	76.3%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	76.2%	99.5%	69.4%	85.4%	76.3%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	76.2%	99.5%	69.4%	85.4%	76.3%
2026-09-27T13:52:42+00:00	72.7%	99.5%	69.4%	85.4%	77.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	93.6°F	2.0°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	85%	93.8°F	5.0°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
ICON	77%	92.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	91.3°F	4.6°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	69%	90.5°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	89.7°F	5.6°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	89.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261001-TMAX-GE89
Opened Sep 25 · 18:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 89°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗