KBNA / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

66%

62%

59%

34%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 64.3¢Risks 64.35u

WN2NO 35.7¢Risks 35.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.65u · WN2 −35.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.4%
2026-09-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	6.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	2.1%	—	—	17.0%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	13.3%	—	—	8.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	1.1%	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	0.2%	—	—	13.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	7.2%	1.3%	—	—	23.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	—	64.4%	3.0%	—	26.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	1.4%	54.4%	37.8%	—	41.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	26.4%	33.7%	61.3%	31.6%	—	56.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	50.0%	66.3%	30.9%	—	52.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	2.9%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	36.9%	63.9%	13.8%	—	57.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	31.9%	61.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	50.9%	67.8%	9.0%	—	67.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	54.5%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	47.2%	65.3%	38.2%	—	60.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	55.7%	59.4%	—	—	63.0%
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	51.9%	69.6%	43.2%	—	65.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	58.9%	68.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	52.1%	73.2%	42.8%	—	58.2%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	27.9%	64.5%	75.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	62.9%	65.9%	43.5%	—	63.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	63.3%	64.3%	0.0%	—	55.6%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	66.9%	74.0%	57.0%	60.4%	54.6%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	59.5%	76.6%	46.4%	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	70.2%	75.4%	52.5%	63.4%	61.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	67.5%	68.7%	53.9%	—	0.0%
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	63.2%	71.6%	43.3%	65.7%	50.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	63.7%	63.7%	48.6%	—	51.4%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	72.0%	58.6%	51.4%	75.5%	44.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	63.3%	64.8%	51.5%	—	41.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	63.9%	77.4%	53.2%	73.7%	43.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	59.8%	69.0%	53.3%	—	35.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	93.7°F	2.0°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	92.6°F	5.0°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	91.9°F	4.6°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
ICON	59%	91.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	91.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	89.7°F	5.6°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	88.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261001-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 27 · 14:40 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗