KBNA / Thu Oct 1 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Sep 28 · 02:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

66%

62%

59%

34%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 64.3¢Risks 64.35u

WN2NO 35.7¢Risks 35.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +35.65u · WN2 −35.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T14:40:05+00:00	56.8%	93.9%	50.0%	74.4%	62.4%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	56.8%	93.9%	50.0%	74.4%	62.4%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	56.8%	93.9%	50.0%	74.4%	62.4%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	56.8%	93.9%	38.0%	74.4%	59.2%
2026-09-27T17:40:47+00:00	56.8%	93.9%	38.0%	74.4%	59.2%
2026-09-27T18:25:58+00:00	56.8%	93.9%	38.0%	74.4%	59.2%
2026-09-27T19:11:08+00:00	56.8%	93.9%	38.0%	74.4%	59.2%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	60.2%	93.9%	38.0%	66.2%	59.2%
2026-09-27T20:41:27+00:00	60.2%	93.9%	38.0%	66.2%	59.2%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	60.2%	93.9%	38.0%	66.2%	59.2%
2026-09-27T22:11:36+00:00	60.2%	93.9%	38.0%	66.2%	59.2%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	60.2%	94.5%	34.2%	66.2%	59.2%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	60.2%	94.5%	34.2%	66.2%	59.2%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	60.2%	94.5%	34.2%	66.2%	59.2%
2026-09-28T01:12:04+00:00	60.2%	94.5%	34.2%	66.2%	59.2%
2026-09-28T01:57:11+00:00	61.9%	94.5%	34.2%	66.2%	59.2%
2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00	61.9%	94.5%	34.2%	66.2%	59.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	94%	93.7°F	2.0°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	92.6°F	5.0°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	91.9°F	4.6°F	2026-09-27 18:00	Pending
ICON	59%	91.6°F	4.7°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	91.0°F	4.5°F	2026-09-27 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	89.7°F	5.6°F	2026-09-27 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	34%	88.9°F	3.9°F	2026-09-27 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261001-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 27 · 14:40 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Thu Oct 1

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗