KBNA / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST84%Sep 27 · 10:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

97%

86%

67%

48%

Consensus

84%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.1¢Risks 73.10u

AIFSNO 26.9¢Risks 26.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.90u · AIFS −26.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	46.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	0.6%	—	—	17.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	—	—	—	28.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	72.7%	—	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	38.2%	—	—	45.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	82.8%	—	—	57.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	12.8%	96.0%	—	—	71.8%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	76.5%	94.6%	39.6%	—	88.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	50.0%	94.1%	72.2%	—	79.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	70.7%	—	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	90.0%	98.2%	25.8%	—	85.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	52.4%	97.8%	16.4%	—	92.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	53.3%	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	55.8%	60.7%	45.0%	—	89.9%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	48.3%	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	44.8%	75.2%	80.4%	—	93.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	59.8%	63.2%	95.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	55.5%	92.4%	80.4%	—	96.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	61.2%	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	63.4%	92.1%	86.9%	—	92.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	95.6%	90.8%	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	51.0%	92.2%	91.4%	52.1%	66.0%	87.2%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	58.4%	52.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	94.7%	92.7%	38.2%	71.8%	93.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	92.9%	82.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	82.5%	72.0%	82.5%	73.0%	87.9%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	96.3%	93.0%	81.7%	—	97.5%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	38.9%	92.0%	90.5%	86.3%	83.4%	97.5%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	97.8%	60.2%	73.1%	—	98.5%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	98.0%	83.5%	34.3%	83.5%	86.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	95.7%	77.9%	81.8%	—	96.3%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	37.2%	93.2%	80.9%	64.2%	75.5%	94.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	94.4%	51.5%	45.5%	—	87.2%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	66.8%	90.4%	45.3%	63.9%	95.2%	91.7%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	85.0%	25.4%	33.9%	—	30.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	91.4°F	3.9°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	94.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	86%	88.5°F	4.5°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending
ICON	67%	86.0°F	5.8°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	84.6°F	8.8°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	84.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-27 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	83.3°F	4.9°F	2026-09-27 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261002-TMAX-GE84
Opened Sep 27 · 03:19 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗