KBNA / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

66%

54%

51%

48%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.0¢Risks 72.95u

ICONNO 27.0¢Risks 27.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +27.05u · ICON −27.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	0.2%	—	—	8.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	15.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	22.0%	—	—	28.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	0.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	67.6%	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	5.0%	89.2%	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	57.7%	85.9%	21.4%	—	74.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	88.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	50.7%	29.1%	84.4%	51.5%	—	60.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	76.1%	93.5%	11.0%	—	69.1%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	29.5%	92.2%	5.7%	—	79.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	29.7%	37.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	31.5%	36.1%	22.5%	—	74.2%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	24.6%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	21.4%	50.9%	57.8%	—	79.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	33.4%	36.8%	83.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	28.9%	77.0%	56.4%	—	85.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	33.5%	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	34.8%	75.3%	65.2%	—	76.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	83.0%	71.8%	—	—	4.2%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	74.1%	72.4%	23.5%	35.9%	64.1%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	27.9%	22.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	78.7%	73.6%	13.1%	40.3%	75.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	73.3%	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	52.3%	38.5%	52.3%	39.6%	61.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	80.9%	71.7%	50.0%	—	85.5%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	68.0%	64.6%	56.2%	51.2%	84.9%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	85.0%	23.8%	36.1%	—	88.5%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	85.1%	48.7%	7.9%	48.7%	54.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	74.7%	39.0%	44.4%	—	76.8%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	65.5%	41.4%	23.4%	34.5%	69.5%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	67.5%	13.6%	10.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	54.7%	9.6%	20.3%	68.3%	57.9%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	41.8%	2.8%	4.9%	—	4.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	92.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	87%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending
National Blend	72%	89.1°F	4.4°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	88.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	86.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	51%	86.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
ICON	48%	86.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261002-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 25 · 19:39 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗