KBNA / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 02 · 10:07 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

34%

20%

19%

18%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.6¢Risks 50.60u

ICONNO 49.4¢Risks 49.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.40u · ICON −49.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	13.4%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	17.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	0.0%	—	—	3.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	10.7%	—	—	14.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	48.7%	—	—	21.7%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	1.6%	76.7%	—	—	33.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	36.9%	70.8%	9.3%	—	54.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	29.7%	13.6%	67.7%	30.4%	—	39.2%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	55.3%	82.6%	3.6%	—	46.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	12.7%	79.4%	1.5%	—	58.7%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	12.6%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	13.4%	16.2%	8.3%	—	50.8%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	9.2%	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	28.4%	7.3%	26.2%	32.2%	—	56.1%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	15.5%	61.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	10.6%	51.8%	29.7%	—	64.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	12.7%	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	13.1%	48.0%	36.6%	—	50.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	58.0%	43.0%	—	—	0.7%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	44.9%	42.8%	6.7%	12.8%	34.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	8.3%	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	48.9%	42.4%	2.6%	14.3%	44.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	41.0%	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	20.7%	12.1%	20.7%	12.7%	28.0%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	48.8%	37.0%	18.3%	—	56.0%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	32.0%	28.7%	21.7%	18.2%	53.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	52.6%	4.6%	9.2%	—	59.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	51.3%	14.9%	0.8%	14.9%	18.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	35.0%	9.2%	11.8%	—	37.7%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	24.5%	9.5%	3.5%	6.8%	28.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	24.8%	1.3%	0.9%	—	12.8%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	14.2%	0.6%	2.2%	23.8%	16.1%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.3%	0.1%	0.2%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	83%	92.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
National Blend	46%	89.1°F	4.4°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	41%	89.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	88.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	20%	86.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	19%	86.8°F	3.0°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	18%	86.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261002-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 25 · 19:39 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗