KBNA / Fri Oct 2 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST31%Oct 02 · 02:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

25%

22%

17%

12%

Consensus

31%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 41.6¢Risks 41.65u

ICONNO 58.4¢Risks 58.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +58.35u · ICON −58.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.0%
2026-09-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	20.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	14.4%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	5.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	8.1%	—	—	11.3%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	23.0%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	42.2%	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	1.0%	71.2%	—	—	27.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	30.5%	64.4%	6.7%	—	47.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	10.0%	60.8%	24.3%	—	32.3%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	73.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	47.7%	77.2%	2.3%	—	39.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	9.0%	73.2%	0.9%	—	50.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	8.8%	12.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	9.3%	11.6%	5.6%	—	42.5%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	6.1%	7.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	4.7%	19.6%	24.8%	—	47.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	10.8%	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	7.0%	42.7%	22.3%	—	55.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	8.4%	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	8.6%	38.5%	27.9%	—	40.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	48.0%	33.5%	—	—	0.3%
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	34.9%	33.0%	4.0%	8.2%	25.1%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	5.0%	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	38.2%	32.1%	1.3%	9.0%	34.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	30.5%	14.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	13.4%	7.2%	13.4%	7.6%	19.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	37.0%	26.3%	11.4%	—	44.0%
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	21.7%	19.1%	13.7%	11.2%	41.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	39.8%	2.2%	4.9%	—	46.1%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	38.1%	8.4%	0.3%	8.4%	10.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	23.2%	4.7%	6.2%	—	25.3%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	14.6%	4.7%	1.5%	3.2%	17.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	14.4%	0.4%	0.3%	—	6.5%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	7.1%	0.2%	0.8%	13.4%	8.3%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	3.1%	0.0%	0.1%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	72%	92.0°F	2.6°F	2026-10-01 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	91.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-01 14:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	88.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-01 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	25%	88.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	87.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-01 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	86.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-01 18:00	Pending
ICON	12%	86.3°F	3.5°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261002-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 29 · 04:21 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Fri Oct 2

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗