KBNA / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 03 · 07:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

46%

45%

43%

26%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.5¢Risks 57.45u

ICONNO 42.5¢Risks 42.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.55u · ICON −42.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	60.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	52.9%	—	—	68.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	—	98.8%	—	—	81.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	93.3%	—	—	90.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	92.0%	—	—	91.5%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	48.0%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	38.7%	35.5%	99.2%	—	—	81.1%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	93.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	91.5%	96.1%	17.5%	—	91.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	92.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	30.4%	80.1%	38.5%	—	91.6%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	40.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	35.1%	8.7%	46.9%	—	91.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	—	4.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	21.8%	11.5%	35.2%	55.6%	—	86.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	25.6%	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	23.8%	9.3%	34.5%	78.7%	—	88.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	33.4%	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	16.7%	46.5%	48.2%	—	67.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	70.6%	52.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	49.1%	—	32.2%	7.3%	44.5%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	33.5%	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	60.6%	91.0%	72.9%	—	38.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	40.1%	66.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	52.1%	23.5%	25.9%	14.5%	23.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	44.7%	36.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	46.7%	25.5%	53.3%	10.4%	42.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	52.2%	35.7%	19.0%	—	10.2%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	89.5%	11.0%	20.7%	21.5%	35.2%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	63.0%	75.6%	38.1%	—	19.1%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	32.0%	56.2%	11.8%	55.0%	29.8%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	26.9%	88.5%	6.4%	—	13.5%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	36.8%	2.6%	18.2%	2.2%	20.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	36.3%	86.8%	31.2%	—	32.5%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	19.1%	94.5%	64.2%	10.8%	62.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	26.0%	95.9%	48.5%	—	59.0%
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	30.3%	92.9%	39.1%	4.4%	20.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	20.3%	54.9%	1.6%	—	1.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	83.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-03 02:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	77.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	77.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	77.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
ICON	26%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261003-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 30 · 15:53 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗