KBNA / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 03 · 07:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

46%

45%

43%

26%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.5¢Risks 57.45u

ICONNO 42.5¢Risks 42.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.55u · ICON −42.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-30T15:53:28+00:00	26.0%	85.7%	85.3%	15.8%	66.0%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	26.0%	85.7%	85.3%	15.8%	57.1%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	26.0%	85.7%	90.2%	15.8%	57.1%
2026-09-30T18:09:04+00:00	26.0%	85.7%	90.2%	15.8%	57.1%
2026-09-30T18:54:13+00:00	26.0%	85.7%	90.2%	15.8%	57.1%
2026-09-30T19:39:19+00:00	31.5%	85.7%	90.2%	26.6%	57.1%
2026-09-30T20:24:32+00:00	31.5%	85.7%	90.2%	26.6%	57.1%
2026-09-30T21:09:38+00:00	31.5%	85.7%	90.2%	26.6%	57.1%
2026-09-30T21:54:44+00:00	31.5%	85.7%	90.2%	26.6%	57.1%
2026-09-30T22:39:50+00:00	31.5%	85.7%	90.2%	26.6%	57.1%
2026-09-30T23:24:55+00:00	31.5%	85.7%	84.1%	26.6%	57.1%
2026-10-01T00:10:15+00:00	31.5%	85.7%	84.1%	26.6%	57.1%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	31.5%	85.7%	84.1%	26.6%	57.1%
2026-10-01T01:40:55+00:00	36.5%	85.7%	84.1%	26.6%	57.1%
2026-10-01T02:26:03+00:00	36.5%	85.7%	84.1%	26.6%	57.1%
2026-10-01T03:11:22+00:00	36.5%	85.7%	84.1%	26.6%	57.1%
2026-10-01T03:57:03+00:00	36.5%	85.7%	84.1%	26.6%	57.1%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	36.5%	85.7%	84.1%	26.6%	57.1%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	36.5%	85.7%	93.1%	26.6%	57.1%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	36.5%	85.7%	93.1%	26.6%	57.1%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	36.5%	85.7%	93.1%	26.6%	57.1%
2026-10-01T07:42:48+00:00	36.8%	85.7%	93.1%	30.5%	57.1%
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	36.8%	85.7%	93.1%	30.5%	57.1%
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	36.8%	85.7%	93.1%	30.5%	57.1%
2026-10-01T09:58:54+00:00	36.8%	85.7%	93.1%	30.5%	57.1%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	36.8%	85.7%	93.1%	30.5%	57.1%
2026-10-01T11:29:09+00:00	36.8%	88.6%	88.6%	30.5%	57.1%
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	36.8%	88.6%	88.6%	30.5%	57.1%
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	36.8%	88.6%	88.6%	30.5%	57.1%
2026-10-01T13:44:44+00:00	43.3%	88.6%	88.6%	30.5%	57.1%
2026-10-01T14:32:56+00:00	43.3%	88.7%	88.6%	30.4%	57.1%
2026-10-01T15:18:10+00:00	43.3%	88.9%	88.6%	30.4%	57.1%
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	43.3%	88.9%	88.6%	30.4%	57.1%
2026-10-01T16:48:48+00:00	43.3%	88.9%	88.6%	30.4%	57.1%
2026-10-01T17:33:57+00:00	43.3%	88.9%	91.5%	30.4%	57.1%
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	43.3%	88.9%	91.5%	30.4%	57.1%
2026-10-01T19:04:08+00:00	43.3%	88.9%	91.5%	30.4%	57.1%
2026-10-01T19:49:13+00:00	38.6%	88.9%	91.5%	45.1%	57.1%
2026-10-01T20:34:24+00:00	38.6%	88.9%	91.5%	45.1%	57.1%
2026-10-01T21:19:30+00:00	38.6%	88.9%	91.5%	45.1%	57.1%
2026-10-01T22:04:40+00:00	38.6%	88.9%	91.5%	45.1%	57.1%
2026-10-01T22:49:47+00:00	38.6%	88.9%	91.5%	45.1%	57.1%
2026-10-01T23:34:52+00:00	38.6%	88.9%	86.3%	45.1%	57.1%
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	38.6%	88.9%	86.3%	45.1%	57.1%
2026-10-02T01:05:07+00:00	38.6%	88.9%	86.3%	45.1%	57.1%
2026-10-02T01:50:22+00:00	36.8%	88.9%	86.3%	45.1%	57.1%
2026-10-02T02:35:39+00:00	36.8%	88.9%	86.3%	45.1%	57.1%
2026-10-03T03:33:05+00:00	45.1%	89.2%	18.6%	45.7%	25.7%
2026-10-03T04:18:36+00:00	45.1%	89.2%	18.6%	45.7%	25.7%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	45.1%	89.2%	43.2%	45.7%	25.7%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	45.1%	89.2%	43.2%	45.7%	25.7%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	45.1%	89.2%	43.2%	45.7%	25.7%
2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:00	45.1%	89.2%	43.2%	45.7%	25.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	89%	83.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	78.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-03 02:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	46%	77.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	77.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	43%	77.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
ICON	26%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261003-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 30 · 15:53 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗