KBNA / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

27%

26%

11%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.6¢Risks 42.55u

WN2NO 57.5¢Risks 57.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.45u · WN2 −57.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	61.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	41.3%	—	—	57.6%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	97.5%	—	—	72.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	88.1%	—	—	83.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	95.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	85.9%	—	—	85.2%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	35.1%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	23.8%	98.1%	—	—	70.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	88.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	84.7%	92.1%	9.9%	—	83.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	18.9%	68.3%	25.4%	—	84.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	22.2%	4.1%	32.3%	—	83.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	5.5%	21.8%	39.7%	—	75.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	14.4%	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	4.1%	20.7%	64.7%	—	77.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	19.6%	56.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	8.0%	29.9%	31.4%	—	50.9%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	53.6%	35.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	31.4%	—	17.8%	2.8%	27.4%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	18.4%	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	41.3%	80.3%	54.9%	—	21.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	22.6%	47.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	32.1%	10.8%	12.3%	5.8%	10.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	25.3%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	26.4%	11.4%	32.1%	3.5%	23.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	30.5%	17.5%	7.5%	—	3.3%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	74.9%	3.5%	8.1%	8.5%	16.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	39.3%	53.6%	18.3%	—	7.0%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	13.7%	32.0%	3.5%	30.9%	12.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	10.3%	70.9%	1.5%	—	4.0%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	15.7%	0.4%	5.7%	0.4%	6.5%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	14.7%	66.2%	11.8%	—	12.4%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	5.5%	80.9%	35.8%	2.5%	34.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	8.0%	83.8%	21.3%	—	29.8%
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	9.6%	75.0%	14.2%	0.6%	5.2%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.9%	24.1%	0.1%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	79%	83.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-02 14:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	77.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	77.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
ICON	11%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	74.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261003-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 28 · 03:27 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗