KBNA / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

79%

27%

26%

11%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.6¢Risks 42.55u

WN2NO 57.5¢Risks 57.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.45u · WN2 −57.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-28T03:27:34+00:00	55.2%	95.6%	94.1%	98.9%	44.8%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	55.2%	95.6%	94.1%	98.9%	44.8%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	55.2%	95.6%	95.5%	98.9%	15.9%
2026-09-28T05:43:44+00:00	55.2%	95.6%	95.5%	98.9%	15.9%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	55.2%	95.6%	95.5%	98.9%	15.9%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	55.2%	95.6%	95.5%	98.9%	15.9%
2026-09-28T07:59:29+00:00	39.6%	95.6%	95.5%	47.9%	15.9%
2026-09-28T08:45:28+00:00	39.6%	95.6%	95.5%	47.9%	15.9%
2026-09-28T09:30:33+00:00	39.6%	95.6%	95.5%	47.9%	15.9%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	39.6%	95.6%	95.5%	47.9%	15.9%
2026-09-28T11:00:49+00:00	39.6%	91.8%	95.5%	47.9%	15.9%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	39.6%	91.8%	95.5%	47.9%	15.9%
2026-09-28T12:31:12+00:00	39.6%	91.8%	95.5%	47.9%	15.9%
2026-09-28T13:16:21+00:00	39.6%	91.8%	95.5%	47.9%	15.9%
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00	38.0%	91.8%	95.5%	47.9%	16.3%
2026-09-30T04:30:39+00:00	23.8%	88.4%	69.4%	18.5%	45.9%
2026-09-30T05:16:19+00:00	23.8%	88.4%	72.0%	18.5%	45.9%
2026-09-30T06:01:28+00:00	23.8%	88.4%	72.0%	18.5%	45.9%
2026-09-30T06:46:37+00:00	23.8%	88.4%	72.0%	18.5%	45.9%
2026-09-30T07:31:59+00:00	23.8%	88.4%	72.0%	7.4%	45.9%
2026-09-30T08:18:13+00:00	23.8%	88.4%	72.0%	7.4%	45.9%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	23.8%	88.4%	72.0%	7.4%	45.9%
2026-09-30T09:48:41+00:00	23.8%	88.4%	72.0%	7.4%	45.9%
2026-09-30T10:34:40+00:00	14.5%	88.4%	72.0%	7.4%	45.9%
2026-09-30T11:19:59+00:00	14.5%	78.5%	69.6%	7.4%	45.9%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	14.5%	78.5%	69.6%	7.4%	45.9%
2026-09-30T12:50:19+00:00	14.5%	78.5%	69.6%	7.4%	45.9%
2026-09-30T13:35:29+00:00	14.0%	78.5%	69.6%	7.4%	45.9%
2026-09-30T14:23:08+00:00	13.5%	78.5%	69.6%	7.4%	45.9%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	13.5%	78.5%	69.6%	7.4%	45.9%
2026-10-02T03:20:55+00:00	20.6%	82.1%	70.3%	27.1%	36.9%
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	20.6%	82.1%	70.3%	27.1%	36.9%
2026-10-02T04:51:30+00:00	20.6%	82.1%	70.3%	27.1%	36.9%
2026-10-02T05:36:46+00:00	20.6%	82.1%	24.2%	27.1%	36.9%
2026-10-02T06:22:01+00:00	20.6%	82.1%	24.2%	27.1%	36.9%
2026-10-02T07:07:11+00:00	20.6%	82.1%	24.2%	27.1%	36.9%
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	17.3%	82.1%	24.2%	27.1%	36.9%
2026-10-02T08:37:31+00:00	17.3%	82.1%	24.2%	27.1%	36.9%
2026-10-02T09:22:36+00:00	17.3%	82.1%	24.2%	27.1%	36.9%
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	17.3%	82.1%	24.2%	27.1%	36.9%
2026-10-02T10:53:18+00:00	17.3%	78.8%	15.5%	30.5%	36.9%
2026-10-02T11:39:22+00:00	17.3%	78.8%	15.5%	30.5%	36.9%
2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00	17.3%	78.8%	15.5%	30.5%	36.9%
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	17.3%	78.8%	15.5%	30.5%	36.9%
2026-10-02T13:55:56+00:00	22.1%	78.7%	15.5%	30.5%	36.9%
2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:00	22.1%	78.7%	7.4%	30.5%	36.9%
2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:00	22.1%	79.4%	7.4%	30.5%	36.9%
2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:00	22.1%	79.4%	7.4%	30.5%	36.9%
2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:00	22.1%	79.4%	7.0%	30.5%	11.1%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	22.1%	79.4%	7.0%	30.5%	11.1%
2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:00	22.1%	79.4%	7.0%	30.5%	11.1%
2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:00	22.1%	79.4%	7.0%	30.5%	11.1%
2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:00	22.8%	79.4%	7.0%	30.5%	11.1%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	22.8%	79.4%	7.0%	30.5%	11.1%
2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:00	22.8%	79.4%	7.0%	30.5%	11.1%
2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:00	22.8%	79.4%	7.0%	30.5%	11.1%
2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:00	22.8%	79.4%	5.7%	26.0%	11.1%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	22.8%	79.4%	5.7%	26.0%	11.1%
2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:00	22.8%	79.4%	5.7%	26.0%	11.1%
2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:00	22.8%	79.4%	5.7%	26.0%	11.1%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	26.8%	79.4%	5.7%	26.0%	11.1%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	26.8%	79.4%	5.7%	26.0%	11.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	79%	83.4°F	4.8°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	80.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-02 14:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	78.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	27%	77.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-02 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	77.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
ICON	11%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	74.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-02 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261003-TMAX-GE80
Opened Sep 28 · 03:27 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗