KBNA / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

57%

50%

13%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 39.5¢Risks 39.50u

AIFSNO 60.5¢Risks 60.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +60.50u · AIFS −60.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-09-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	21.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	8.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	8.1%	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	77.2%	—	—	27.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	46.9%	—	—	39.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	65.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	41.0%	—	—	39.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	87.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	1.9%	76.2%	—	—	20.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	34.9%	50.0%	0.4%	—	33.6%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.9%	16.1%	1.7%	—	32.3%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	1.1%	0.1%	2.3%	—	28.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	0.9%	3.1%	—	17.9%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.0%	0.6%	9.7%	—	17.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.5%	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	1.1%	1.2%	—	4.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.3%	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.0%	—	0.3%	0.0%	0.7%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	13.6%	3.4%	—	0.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	4.8%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	1.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.9%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.6%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	74%	91.7°F	6.4°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
ICON	57%	89.3°F	9.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	87.6°F	7.7°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
National Blend	50%	87.5°F	8.6°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	82.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	78.1°F	5.6°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261003-TMAX-GE88
Opened Sep 26 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 88°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗