KBNA / Sat Oct 3 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Sep 27 · 02:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

57%

50%

13%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 39.5¢Risks 39.50u

AIFSNO 60.5¢Risks 60.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +60.50u · AIFS −60.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-26T07:42:58+00:00	10.1%	60.2%	30.9%	54.4%	20.1%
2026-09-26T08:28:40+00:00	10.1%	60.2%	30.9%	54.4%	20.1%
2026-09-26T09:13:46+00:00	10.1%	60.2%	30.9%	54.4%	20.1%
2026-09-26T09:58:52+00:00	10.1%	60.2%	30.9%	54.4%	20.1%
2026-09-26T10:44:04+00:00	10.1%	60.2%	30.9%	54.4%	20.1%
2026-09-26T11:29:16+00:00	10.1%	50.5%	14.7%	54.4%	20.1%
2026-09-26T12:14:30+00:00	10.1%	50.5%	14.7%	54.4%	20.1%
2026-09-26T12:59:35+00:00	10.1%	50.5%	14.7%	54.4%	20.1%
2026-09-26T13:44:43+00:00	11.1%	50.5%	14.7%	54.4%	20.1%
2026-09-26T14:32:08+00:00	11.1%	50.5%	14.7%	54.4%	20.1%
2026-09-26T15:17:30+00:00	11.1%	50.5%	14.7%	54.4%	20.1%
2026-09-26T16:02:36+00:00	11.1%	50.5%	14.7%	54.4%	20.1%
2026-09-26T16:47:42+00:00	11.1%	50.5%	14.7%	54.4%	57.3%
2026-09-26T17:32:51+00:00	11.1%	50.5%	14.7%	54.4%	57.3%
2026-09-26T18:17:59+00:00	11.1%	50.5%	14.7%	54.4%	57.3%
2026-09-26T19:03:07+00:00	11.1%	50.5%	14.7%	54.4%	57.3%
2026-09-26T19:48:18+00:00	8.1%	50.5%	14.7%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-09-26T20:33:26+00:00	8.1%	50.5%	14.7%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-09-26T21:18:32+00:00	8.1%	50.5%	14.7%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-09-26T22:03:38+00:00	8.1%	50.5%	14.7%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-09-26T22:48:45+00:00	8.1%	50.5%	14.7%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-09-26T23:33:55+00:00	8.0%	50.5%	12.9%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-09-27T00:19:03+00:00	8.0%	50.5%	12.9%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-09-27T01:04:12+00:00	8.0%	50.5%	12.9%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-09-27T01:49:25+00:00	4.5%	50.5%	12.9%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-09-27T02:34:31+00:00	4.5%	50.5%	12.9%	74.5%	57.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	74%	91.7°F	6.4°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
ICON	57%	89.3°F	9.8°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	87.6°F	7.7°F	2026-09-26 00:00	Pending
National Blend	50%	87.5°F	8.6°F	2026-09-26 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	82.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-26 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	4%	78.1°F	5.6°F	2026-09-26 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261003-TMAX-GE88
Opened Sep 26 · 07:42 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 88°F · Sat Oct 3

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗