KBNA / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 02 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

82%

73%

71%

23%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

ICONNO 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.25u · ICON −47.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	53.8%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	51.8%	—	—	67.6%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	75.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	62.5%	—	—	62.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	60.6%	—	—	52.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	34.2%	—	66.4%	—	—	64.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	37.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	18.0%	30.0%	49.3%	—	—	62.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	34.3%	36.2%	48.6%	40.9%	—	77.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	23.2%	45.6%	51.5%	—	61.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	55.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	23.4%	1.8%	65.6%	20.5%	—	50.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	57.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	21.8%	39.7%	37.5%	—	37.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	34.1%	27.0%	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	28.6%	—	36.1%	40.1%	30.0%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	60.2%	6.7%	34.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	3.9%	89.5%	44.8%	—	31.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	16.1%	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	44.5%	12.9%	33.0%	67.8%	—	29.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	29.2%	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	23.2%	44.2%	32.1%	—	27.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	—	51.0%	63.1%	20.4%	43.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	82.4%	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	73.6%	64.9%	22.1%	41.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	78.6%	0.9%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	71.0%	62.6%	—	51.2%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	80.1%	59.5%	45.2%	—	0.9%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	21.7%	82.6%	53.7%	38.9%	59.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	26.9%	15.8%	75.2%	59.0%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	9.5%	87.4%	33.1%	69.3%	48.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	24.2%	81.8%	25.3%	—	27.6%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	23.4%	81.8%	29.3%	45.7%	34.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	6.5%	15.3%	83.8%	32.5%	—	14.4%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	18.1%	91.7%	36.1%	18.1%	34.6%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	33.9%	83.0%	54.9%	—	37.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	81.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	80.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	80.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	79.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	79.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending
ICON	23%	74.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261004-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 27 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗