KBNA / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 02 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

82%

73%

71%

23%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 52.8¢Risks 52.75u

ICONNO 47.2¢Risks 47.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +47.25u · ICON −47.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T13:55:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T07:51:10+00:00	44.3%	79.4%	84.5%	70.9%	53.7%
2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00	44.3%	79.4%	84.5%	70.9%	53.7%
2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00	44.3%	79.4%	84.5%	70.9%	53.7%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	44.3%	79.4%	84.5%	70.9%	53.7%
2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00	44.3%	79.4%	84.5%	70.9%	53.7%
2026-09-27T11:37:17+00:00	44.3%	84.8%	85.7%	70.9%	53.7%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	44.3%	84.8%	85.7%	70.9%	53.7%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	44.3%	84.8%	85.7%	70.9%	53.7%
2026-09-27T13:52:42+00:00	47.1%	84.8%	85.7%	70.4%	53.7%
2026-09-27T14:40:06+00:00	47.1%	84.8%	85.7%	70.4%	53.7%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	47.1%	84.5%	85.7%	70.4%	53.7%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	47.1%	84.5%	85.7%	70.4%	53.7%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	47.1%	84.5%	90.6%	70.4%	58.1%
2026-09-27T17:40:47+00:00	47.1%	84.5%	90.6%	70.4%	58.1%
2026-09-27T18:25:58+00:00	47.1%	84.5%	90.6%	70.4%	58.1%
2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00	47.1%	84.5%	90.6%	70.4%	58.1%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	66.0%	84.5%	90.6%	96.5%	58.1%
2026-09-27T20:41:27+00:00	66.0%	84.5%	90.6%	96.5%	58.1%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	66.0%	84.5%	90.6%	96.5%	58.1%
2026-09-27T22:11:36+00:00	66.0%	84.5%	90.6%	96.5%	58.1%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	66.0%	85.1%	93.8%	96.5%	58.1%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	66.0%	85.1%	93.8%	96.5%	58.1%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	66.0%	85.1%	93.8%	96.5%	58.1%
2026-09-28T01:12:04+00:00	66.0%	85.1%	93.8%	96.5%	58.1%
2026-09-28T01:57:11+00:00	63.4%	85.1%	93.8%	96.5%	58.1%
2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00	63.4%	85.1%	93.8%	96.5%	58.1%
2026-09-28T03:27:34+00:00	63.4%	85.1%	93.8%	96.5%	58.1%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	63.4%	85.1%	93.8%	96.5%	58.1%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	63.4%	85.1%	95.4%	96.5%	44.8%
2026-09-28T05:43:44+00:00	63.4%	85.1%	95.4%	96.5%	44.8%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	63.4%	85.1%	95.4%	96.5%	44.8%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	63.4%	85.1%	95.4%	96.5%	44.8%
2026-09-28T07:59:29+00:00	61.1%	85.1%	95.4%	71.1%	44.8%
2026-09-28T08:45:28+00:00	61.1%	85.1%	95.4%	71.1%	44.8%
2026-09-28T09:30:33+00:00	61.1%	85.1%	95.4%	71.1%	44.8%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	61.1%	85.1%	95.4%	71.1%	44.8%
2026-09-28T11:00:49+00:00	61.1%	81.2%	95.1%	71.1%	44.8%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	61.1%	81.2%	95.1%	71.1%	44.8%
2026-09-28T12:31:12+00:00	61.1%	81.2%	95.1%	71.1%	44.8%
2026-09-28T13:16:21+00:00	61.1%	81.2%	95.1%	71.1%	44.8%
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00	56.7%	81.1%	95.1%	71.2%	44.8%
2026-09-29T15:42:15+00:00	69.4%	76.6%	89.5%	55.5%	39.2%
2026-09-29T16:27:41+00:00	69.4%	76.6%	89.5%	55.5%	47.3%
2026-09-29T17:12:51+00:00	69.4%	76.6%	84.7%	55.5%	47.3%
2026-09-29T17:57:58+00:00	69.4%	76.6%	84.7%	55.5%	47.3%
2026-09-29T18:43:06+00:00	69.4%	76.6%	84.7%	55.5%	47.3%
2026-09-29T19:28:13+00:00	79.8%	76.6%	84.7%	30.3%	47.3%
2026-09-29T20:13:35+00:00	79.8%	76.6%	84.7%	30.3%	47.3%
2026-09-29T20:58:47+00:00	79.8%	76.6%	84.7%	30.3%	47.3%
2026-09-29T21:43:55+00:00	79.8%	76.6%	84.7%	30.3%	47.3%
2026-09-29T22:29:02+00:00	79.8%	76.6%	84.7%	30.3%	47.3%
2026-09-29T23:14:14+00:00	79.8%	77.2%	72.4%	30.3%	47.3%
2026-09-29T23:59:27+00:00	79.8%	77.2%	72.4%	30.3%	47.3%
2026-09-30T00:44:33+00:00	79.8%	77.2%	72.4%	30.3%	47.3%
2026-09-30T01:29:51+00:00	85.5%	77.2%	72.4%	30.3%	47.3%
2026-09-30T02:14:59+00:00	85.5%	77.2%	72.4%	30.3%	47.3%
2026-09-30T03:00:08+00:00	85.5%	77.2%	72.4%	30.3%	47.3%
2026-09-30T03:45:22+00:00	85.5%	77.2%	72.4%	30.3%	47.3%
2026-10-01T03:11:22+00:00	71.3%	71.4%	79.0%	69.8%	22.9%
2026-10-01T03:57:03+00:00	71.3%	71.4%	79.0%	69.8%	22.9%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	71.3%	71.4%	79.0%	69.8%	22.9%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	71.3%	71.4%	86.1%	69.8%	22.9%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	71.3%	71.4%	86.1%	69.8%	22.9%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	71.3%	71.4%	86.1%	69.8%	22.9%
2026-10-01T07:42:48+00:00	68.5%	71.4%	86.1%	70.4%	22.9%
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	68.5%	71.4%	86.1%	70.4%	22.9%
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	68.5%	71.4%	86.1%	70.4%	22.9%
2026-10-01T09:58:54+00:00	68.5%	71.4%	86.1%	70.4%	22.9%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	68.5%	71.4%	86.1%	70.4%	22.9%
2026-10-01T11:29:09+00:00	68.5%	75.0%	87.7%	70.4%	22.9%
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	68.5%	75.0%	87.7%	70.4%	22.9%
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	68.5%	75.0%	87.7%	70.4%	22.9%
2026-10-01T13:44:44+00:00	58.2%	75.0%	87.7%	70.4%	22.9%
2026-10-01T14:32:56+00:00	58.2%	75.0%	87.6%	70.4%	22.9%
2026-10-02T03:20:55+00:00	66.0%	76.6%	87.6%	58.8%	22.9%
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	66.0%	76.6%	87.6%	58.8%	22.9%
2026-10-02T04:51:30+00:00	66.0%	76.6%	87.6%	58.8%	22.9%
2026-10-02T05:36:46+00:00	66.0%	76.6%	73.2%	58.8%	22.9%
2026-10-02T06:22:01+00:00	66.0%	76.6%	73.2%	58.8%	22.9%
2026-10-02T07:07:11+00:00	66.0%	76.6%	73.2%	58.8%	22.9%
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	78.7%	76.6%	73.2%	58.8%	22.9%
2026-10-02T08:37:31+00:00	78.7%	76.6%	73.2%	58.8%	22.9%
2026-10-02T09:22:36+00:00	78.7%	76.6%	73.2%	58.8%	22.9%
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	78.7%	76.6%	73.2%	58.8%	22.9%
2026-10-02T10:53:18+00:00	78.7%	82.0%	71.2%	72.9%	22.9%
2026-10-02T11:39:23+00:00	78.7%	82.0%	71.2%	72.9%	22.9%
2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00	78.7%	82.0%	71.2%	72.9%	22.9%
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	78.7%	82.0%	71.2%	72.9%	22.9%
2026-10-02T13:55:56+00:00	82.6%	81.9%	71.2%	72.9%	22.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	81.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	82%	80.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	80.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	71%	79.5°F	3.6°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	79.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending
ICON	23%	74.0°F	4.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261004-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 27 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗