KBNA / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 04 · 06:44 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

63%

34%

32%

25%

<1%

Consensus

29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 31.9¢Risks 31.90u

ICONNO 68.1¢Risks 68.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.10u · ICON −68.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	29.3%	—	—	44.7%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	53.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	38.6%	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	35.9%	—	—	28.5%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	41.0%	—	—	38.4%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	11.4%	24.4%	—	—	35.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	14.5%	23.0%	17.5%	—	52.1%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	7.1%	19.9%	24.3%	—	33.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	26.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	0.2%	35.8%	5.6%	—	22.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	5.7%	14.5%	13.1%	—	13.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	7.6%	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	8.0%	—	11.6%	13.8%	8.7%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	0.9%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	13.6%	0.4%	64.6%	15.6%	—	8.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	2.9%	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	2.0%	8.6%	32.2%	—	7.3%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	6.7%	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	4.4%	13.1%	7.5%	—	5.6%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	15.7%	24.3%	3.2%	11.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	44.7%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	32.1%	23.8%	3.1%	9.4%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	36.7%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	27.0%	19.9%	—	12.7%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	35.9%	16.7%	9.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	2.1%	37.7%	12.4%	6.3%	15.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	1.1%	26.9%	14.3%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	0.4%	42.0%	3.7%	20.0%	8.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	1.8%	31.2%	2.0%	—	2.3%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.5%	29.3%	2.3%	5.9%	3.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	29.8%	2.4%	—	0.5%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.6%	42.1%	2.6%	0.6%	2.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.9%	24.1%	6.3%	—	2.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	63%	82.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-03 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	82.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-04 02:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	81.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	80.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	32%	79.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	25%	79.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-03 18:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	72.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-03 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261004-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 04 · 03:43 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗