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KBNA / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST29%Oct 04 · 06:44 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
63%
HRES
34%
AIFS
32%
WN2
25%
ICON
<1%
Consensus
29%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 31.9¢Risks 31.90u
VS
ICONNO 68.1¢Risks 68.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +68.10u · ICON −68.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 31.8% · 2026-10-04T03:43:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.8% · 2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00AIFS Single: 31.8% · 2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:00AIFS Single: 31.8% · 2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:00AIFS Single: 31.8% · 2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.4% · 2026-10-04T03:43:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.4% · 2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.4% · 2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.4% · 2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 63.4% · 2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.8% · 2026-10-04T03:43:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 12.8% · 2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.6% · 2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.6% · 2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 24.6% · 2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:00IFS HRES: 34.4% · 2026-10-04T03:43:00+00:00IFS HRES: 34.4% · 2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00IFS HRES: 34.4% · 2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:00IFS HRES: 34.4% · 2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:00IFS HRES: 34.4% · 2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-04T03:43:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:0010-04 03:4310-04 05:1310-04 06:44
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-04T03:43:00+00:0031.8%63.4%12.8%34.4%0.4%
2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:0031.8%63.4%12.8%34.4%0.4%
2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:0031.8%63.4%24.6%34.4%0.4%
2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:0031.8%63.4%24.6%34.4%0.4%
2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:0031.8%63.4%24.6%34.4%0.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble63%82.5°F2.9°F2026-10-03 00:00Pending
NWS forecast59%82.0°F2.2°F2026-10-04 02:00Pending
National Blend42%81.0°F2.5°F2026-10-04 00:00Pending
IFS HRES34%80.0°F3.7°F2026-10-03 12:00Pending
AIFS Single32%79.6°F4.0°F2026-10-03 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 225%79.5°F2.9°F2026-10-03 18:00Pending
ICON<1%72.3°F3.5°F2026-10-03 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261004-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 04 · 03:43 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗