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KBNA / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 29 · 16:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
8%
EPS
7%
HRES
3%
AIFS
3%
ICON
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 5.0¢Risks 1.24u
VS
ICONNO 95.0¢Risks 23.76u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.76u · ICON −23.76u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.9% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.3% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.1% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.7% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.3% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.4% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.6% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.2% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.4% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.0% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.8% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.9% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.5% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.3% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.1% · 2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.4% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.9% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.9% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.6% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.2% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.4% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 9.5% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.2% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.7% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.1% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0009-19 06:0009-27 00:0010-04 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%————1.4%
2026-09-19T18:00:00+00:002.1%—————
2026-09-20T00:00:00+00:006.1%————13.1%
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:000.6%————13.4%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:007.9%————17.9%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:007.3%—————
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:001.2%————17.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:0015.6%—————
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:002.7%————15.2%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:007.1%—————
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:006.8%————12.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:007.1%—————
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:008.1%————5.5%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:000.8%—————
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:001.9%————6.2%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:002.7%—————
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:000.0%————5.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:000.8%—————
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:005.1%————8.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:001.7%—4.3%——9.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:001.1%—13.4%———
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:001.3%—6.6%——6.4%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:001.6%—————
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:000.9%—5.2%——3.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:001.5%—7.4%———
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:000.9%—6.2%——5.5%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:000.7%—1.0%———
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.5%2.0%——4.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:000.2%—0.2%———
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:000.6%0.7%1.6%0.9%—8.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:000.4%—0.0%———
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.2%1.0%1.5%—2.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:000.2%—1.7%———
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%2.9%0.1%—1.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:000.1%—1.6%———
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:000.4%0.1%0.4%0.3%—0.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%3.0%———
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:000.6%0.1%—0.2%0.3%0.1%
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:001.0%0.0%0.1%———
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%8.3%0.3%—0.1%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%4.8%———
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:000.2%0.0%0.1%1.0%—0.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.9%———
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%———
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:000.0%—0.1%0.3%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:000.0%—1.2%——0.0%
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:000.0%—0.4%0.2%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.5%0.0%——
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:000.0%—0.2%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%——
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 28%83.2°F4.5°F2026-09-28 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble7%81.5°F5.5°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending
IFS HRES3%78.3°F5.8°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending
AIFS Single3%80.0°F4.9°F2026-09-29 06:00Pending
ICON2%77.1°F5.8°F2026-09-29 12:00Pending
National Blend2%77.6°F5.5°F2026-09-29 06:00Pending
NWS forecast1%78.0°F5.1°F2026-09-29 15:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261004-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 27 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗