KBNA / Sun Oct 4 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 29 · 16:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 5.0¢Risks 1.24u

ICONNO 95.0¢Risks 23.76u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.76u · ICON −23.76u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-29T16:27:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-27T07:51:11+00:00	1.1%	23.6%	10.0%	9.1%	12.9%
2026-09-27T08:36:52+00:00	1.1%	23.6%	10.0%	9.1%	12.9%
2026-09-27T09:21:59+00:00	1.1%	23.6%	10.0%	9.1%	12.9%
2026-09-27T10:07:04+00:00	1.1%	23.6%	10.0%	9.1%	12.9%
2026-09-27T10:52:09+00:00	1.1%	23.6%	10.0%	9.1%	12.9%
2026-09-27T11:37:17+00:00	1.1%	27.6%	8.1%	9.1%	12.9%
2026-09-27T12:22:26+00:00	1.1%	27.6%	8.1%	9.1%	12.9%
2026-09-27T13:07:33+00:00	1.1%	27.6%	8.1%	9.1%	12.9%
2026-09-27T13:52:42+00:00	1.3%	27.6%	8.1%	8.8%	12.8%
2026-09-27T14:40:06+00:00	1.3%	27.6%	8.1%	8.8%	12.8%
2026-09-27T15:25:29+00:00	1.3%	27.2%	8.1%	8.8%	12.8%
2026-09-27T16:10:34+00:00	1.3%	27.2%	8.1%	8.8%	12.8%
2026-09-27T16:55:40+00:00	1.3%	27.2%	12.5%	8.8%	15.3%
2026-09-27T17:40:47+00:00	1.3%	27.2%	12.5%	8.8%	15.3%
2026-09-27T18:25:58+00:00	1.3%	27.2%	12.5%	8.8%	15.3%
2026-09-27T19:11:09+00:00	1.3%	27.2%	12.5%	8.8%	15.3%
2026-09-27T19:56:18+00:00	4.1%	27.2%	12.5%	46.9%	15.3%
2026-09-27T20:41:27+00:00	4.1%	27.2%	12.5%	46.9%	15.3%
2026-09-27T21:26:32+00:00	4.1%	27.2%	12.5%	46.9%	15.3%
2026-09-27T22:11:36+00:00	4.1%	27.2%	12.5%	46.9%	15.3%
2026-09-27T22:56:44+00:00	4.1%	28.1%	17.8%	46.9%	15.3%
2026-09-27T23:41:50+00:00	4.1%	28.1%	17.8%	46.9%	15.3%
2026-09-28T00:26:56+00:00	4.1%	28.1%	17.8%	46.9%	15.3%
2026-09-28T01:12:04+00:00	4.1%	28.1%	17.8%	46.9%	15.3%
2026-09-28T01:57:11+00:00	3.5%	28.1%	17.8%	46.9%	15.3%
2026-09-28T02:42:17+00:00	3.5%	28.1%	17.8%	46.9%	15.3%
2026-09-28T03:27:34+00:00	3.5%	28.1%	17.8%	46.9%	15.3%
2026-09-28T04:13:29+00:00	3.5%	28.1%	17.8%	46.9%	15.3%
2026-09-28T04:58:35+00:00	3.5%	28.1%	21.8%	46.9%	3.1%
2026-09-28T05:43:44+00:00	3.5%	28.1%	21.8%	46.9%	3.1%
2026-09-28T06:28:55+00:00	3.5%	28.1%	21.8%	46.9%	3.1%
2026-09-28T07:14:00+00:00	3.5%	28.1%	21.8%	46.9%	3.1%
2026-09-28T07:59:29+00:00	2.4%	28.1%	21.8%	10.6%	3.1%
2026-09-28T08:45:28+00:00	2.4%	28.1%	21.8%	10.6%	3.1%
2026-09-28T09:30:33+00:00	2.4%	28.1%	21.8%	10.6%	3.1%
2026-09-28T10:15:39+00:00	2.4%	28.1%	21.8%	10.6%	3.1%
2026-09-28T11:00:49+00:00	2.4%	19.6%	16.1%	10.6%	3.1%
2026-09-28T11:46:05+00:00	2.4%	19.6%	16.1%	10.6%	3.1%
2026-09-28T12:31:12+00:00	2.4%	19.6%	16.1%	10.6%	3.1%
2026-09-28T13:16:21+00:00	2.4%	19.6%	16.1%	10.6%	3.1%
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00	1.8%	19.7%	16.1%	10.5%	3.0%
2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00	1.8%	19.7%	16.1%	10.5%	3.0%
2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00	1.8%	20.0%	16.1%	10.5%	3.0%
2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00	1.8%	20.0%	16.1%	10.5%	3.0%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00	1.8%	20.0%	15.5%	10.5%	0.2%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00	1.8%	20.0%	15.5%	10.5%	0.2%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00	1.8%	20.0%	15.5%	10.5%	0.2%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00	1.8%	20.0%	15.5%	10.5%	0.2%
2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00	1.7%	20.0%	15.5%	13.2%	0.2%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00	1.7%	20.0%	15.5%	13.2%	0.2%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00	1.7%	20.0%	15.5%	13.2%	0.2%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00	1.7%	20.0%	15.5%	13.2%	0.2%
2026-09-28T23:05:04+00:00	1.7%	19.7%	12.2%	13.2%	0.2%
2026-09-28T23:50:11+00:00	1.7%	19.7%	12.2%	13.2%	0.2%
2026-09-29T00:35:17+00:00	1.7%	19.7%	12.2%	13.2%	0.2%
2026-09-29T01:20:27+00:00	1.7%	19.7%	12.2%	13.2%	0.2%
2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00	1.1%	19.7%	12.2%	13.2%	0.2%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00	1.1%	19.7%	12.2%	13.2%	0.2%
2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00	1.1%	19.7%	12.2%	13.2%	0.2%
2026-09-29T04:21:24+00:00	1.1%	19.7%	12.2%	13.2%	0.2%
2026-09-29T05:06:54+00:00	1.1%	19.7%	8.3%	13.2%	1.0%
2026-09-29T05:52:03+00:00	1.1%	19.7%	8.3%	13.2%	1.0%
2026-09-29T06:37:09+00:00	1.1%	19.7%	8.3%	13.2%	1.0%
2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00	3.2%	19.7%	8.3%	2.7%	1.0%
2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00	3.2%	19.7%	8.3%	2.7%	1.0%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00	3.2%	19.7%	8.3%	2.7%	1.0%
2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00	3.2%	19.7%	8.3%	2.7%	1.0%
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00	3.2%	19.7%	8.3%	2.7%	1.0%
2026-09-29T11:08:51+00:00	3.2%	7.0%	8.3%	2.7%	1.0%
2026-09-29T11:54:06+00:00	3.2%	7.0%	8.3%	2.7%	1.0%
2026-09-29T12:39:11+00:00	3.2%	7.0%	8.3%	2.7%	1.0%
2026-09-29T13:24:16+00:00	2.7%	7.0%	8.3%	2.7%	1.0%
2026-09-29T14:11:41+00:00	2.7%	7.0%	8.3%	2.7%	1.0%
2026-09-29T14:56:55+00:00	2.7%	7.3%	8.3%	2.7%	1.0%
2026-09-29T16:27:41+00:00	2.7%	7.3%	8.3%	2.7%	1.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	8%	83.2°F	4.5°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	7%	81.5°F	5.5°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	3%	78.3°F	5.8°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	80.0°F	4.9°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
ICON	2%	77.1°F	5.8°F	2026-09-29 12:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	77.6°F	5.5°F	2026-09-29 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	1%	78.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-29 15:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261004-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 27 · 07:51 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sun Oct 4

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗