KBNA / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

91%

84%

73%

62%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 79.0¢Risks 79.00u

ICONNO 21.0¢Risks 21.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +21.00u · ICON −21.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	71.3%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	44.3%	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	32.4%	—	40.4%	—	—	45.8%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	16.4%	—	—	54.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	82.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	71.6%	—	—	59.7%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	37.4%	44.6%	—	—	49.3%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	16.2%	70.8%	17.1%	—	59.1%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	45.0%	—	42.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	75.7%	52.9%	70.9%	—	55.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	72.4%	21.6%	—	27.7%	48.5%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	54.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	82.6%	65.5%	77.0%	93.1%	—	63.3%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	77.5%	13.5%	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	45.0%	66.2%	84.8%	—	63.1%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	73.3%	36.6%	80.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	48.2%	71.6%	77.2%	—	58.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	95.0%	75.6%	65.3%	63.6%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	97.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	78.2%	—	93.5%	72.9%	—	58.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	92.2%	69.7%	—	51.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	81.0%	88.9%	93.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	82.4%	76.2%	96.2%	67.9%	—	68.9%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	83.2%	97.1%	1.2%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	81.7%	97.5%	61.5%	—	63.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	79.2%	96.0%	61.9%	—	59.5%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	83.4%	97.0%	71.3%	87.6%	71.3%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	83.4%	97.8%	79.1%	—	0.4%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	88.7%	98.4%	74.9%	81.8%	70.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	92.4%	98.8%	80.9%	—	79.9%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	96.0%	99.5%	89.8%	90.5%	86.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	95.9%	97.3%	99.7%	90.8%	—	0.6%
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	96.3%	99.6%	85.8%	86.6%	78.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	98.7%	99.7%	94.2%	—	94.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	96%	80.1°F	3.1°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	81.2°F	4.9°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	78.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	73%	78.1°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
ICON	62%	76.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	75.0°F	5.1°F	2026-09-30 15:00	Pending
National Blend	51%	74.6°F	4.4°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261005-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 28 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗