KBNA / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 05 · 06:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

63%

62%

28%

22%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.5¢Risks 51.50u

ICONNO 48.5¢Risks 48.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.50u · ICON −48.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	19.7%	—	—	24.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	15.8%	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	3.9%	—	—	24.9%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	40.3%	—	—	28.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	12.1%	16.3%	—	—	19.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	24.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	7.9%	3.1%	36.9%	3.3%	—	25.7%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	14.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	41.3%	19.9%	35.7%	—	22.1%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	30.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	4.1%	—	6.0%	16.0%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	19.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	27.4%	39.7%	68.4%	—	25.5%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	39.5%	1.7%	45.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	12.0%	26.5%	49.2%	—	23.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	7.8%	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	12.7%	29.9%	36.3%	—	19.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	68.6%	32.2%	22.3%	20.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	61.5%	27.1%	—	15.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	—	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	55.1%	21.9%	—	10.3%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	45.8%	56.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	25.5%	65.9%	18.3%	—	19.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	33.6%	32.6%	68.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	35.2%	28.9%	69.0%	12.1%	—	13.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	24.4%	59.5%	11.4%	—	10.2%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	27.6%	62.3%	15.9%	34.2%	15.9%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	25.9%	65.1%	20.9%	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	31.9%	68.1%	15.7%	22.0%	12.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	37.7%	70.0%	19.1%	—	18.2%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	51.4%	47.1%	77.8%	29.3%	30.5%	23.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	51.5%	80.8%	28.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	42.1%	75.0%	18.1%	19.2%	11.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	56.6%	75.9%	30.9%	—	32.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	83.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-04 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	80.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	80.3°F	2.6°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-05 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	77.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
ICON	22%	76.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261005-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 02 · 14:44 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗