KBNA / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 05 · 06:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

63%

62%

28%

22%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 51.5¢Risks 51.50u

ICONNO 48.5¢Risks 48.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +48.50u · ICON −48.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-02T14:44:22+00:00	69.4%	59.8%	71.6%	26.6%	28.5%
2026-10-02T15:29:52+00:00	69.4%	61.0%	71.6%	26.6%	28.5%
2026-10-02T16:15:00+00:00	69.4%	61.0%	71.6%	26.6%	28.5%
2026-10-02T17:00:11+00:00	69.4%	61.0%	73.6%	26.6%	44.9%
2026-10-02T17:45:22+00:00	69.4%	61.0%	73.6%	26.6%	44.9%
2026-10-02T18:30:28+00:00	69.4%	61.0%	73.6%	26.6%	44.9%
2026-10-02T19:15:34+00:00	69.4%	61.0%	73.6%	26.6%	44.9%
2026-10-02T20:00:41+00:00	68.6%	61.0%	73.6%	26.6%	44.9%
2026-10-02T20:45:52+00:00	68.6%	61.0%	73.6%	26.6%	44.9%
2026-10-02T21:30:57+00:00	68.6%	61.0%	73.6%	26.6%	44.9%
2026-10-02T22:16:30+00:00	68.6%	61.0%	73.6%	26.6%	44.9%
2026-10-02T23:01:44+00:00	68.6%	62.2%	72.6%	28.9%	44.9%
2026-10-02T23:46:53+00:00	68.6%	62.2%	72.6%	28.9%	44.9%
2026-10-03T00:31:59+00:00	68.6%	62.2%	72.6%	28.9%	44.9%
2026-10-03T01:17:14+00:00	68.6%	62.2%	72.6%	28.9%	44.9%
2026-10-03T02:02:31+00:00	67.8%	62.2%	72.6%	28.9%	44.9%
2026-10-03T02:47:42+00:00	67.8%	62.2%	72.6%	28.9%	44.9%
2026-10-03T03:33:05+00:00	67.8%	62.2%	72.6%	28.9%	44.9%
2026-10-03T04:18:36+00:00	67.8%	62.2%	72.6%	28.9%	44.9%
2026-10-03T05:03:42+00:00	67.8%	62.2%	72.6%	28.9%	44.9%
2026-10-03T05:48:49+00:00	67.8%	62.2%	72.6%	28.9%	44.9%
2026-10-03T06:33:54+00:00	67.8%	62.2%	72.6%	28.9%	44.9%
2026-10-03T07:18:59+00:00	67.8%	62.2%	72.6%	28.9%	44.9%
2026-10-03T08:04:26+00:00	70.2%	62.2%	72.6%	43.2%	21.4%
2026-10-03T08:50:21+00:00	70.2%	62.2%	72.6%	43.2%	21.4%
2026-10-03T09:35:25+00:00	70.2%	62.2%	72.6%	43.2%	21.4%
2026-10-03T10:20:30+00:00	70.2%	62.2%	72.6%	43.2%	21.4%
2026-10-03T11:05:43+00:00	70.2%	75.6%	69.8%	43.2%	21.4%
2026-10-03T11:51:01+00:00	70.2%	75.6%	69.8%	43.2%	21.4%
2026-10-03T12:36:05+00:00	70.2%	75.6%	69.8%	43.2%	21.4%
2026-10-03T13:21:11+00:00	70.2%	75.6%	69.8%	43.2%	21.4%
2026-10-03T14:09:36+00:00	71.1%	75.6%	69.8%	43.2%	21.4%
2026-10-03T14:54:57+00:00	71.1%	75.6%	69.8%	43.2%	21.4%
2026-10-03T15:40:19+00:00	71.1%	75.6%	69.8%	43.2%	21.4%
2026-10-03T16:25:24+00:00	71.1%	75.6%	69.8%	43.2%	21.4%
2026-10-03T17:10:31+00:00	71.1%	75.6%	60.2%	43.2%	21.4%
2026-10-03T17:55:38+00:00	71.1%	75.6%	60.2%	43.2%	21.4%
2026-10-03T18:40:45+00:00	71.1%	75.6%	60.2%	43.2%	21.4%
2026-10-03T19:25:55+00:00	71.9%	75.6%	60.2%	31.3%	25.7%
2026-10-03T20:11:06+00:00	71.9%	75.6%	60.2%	31.3%	25.7%
2026-10-03T20:56:18+00:00	71.9%	75.6%	60.2%	31.3%	25.7%
2026-10-03T21:41:25+00:00	71.9%	75.6%	60.2%	31.3%	25.7%
2026-10-03T22:26:31+00:00	71.9%	75.6%	60.2%	31.3%	25.7%
2026-10-03T23:11:37+00:00	71.9%	72.8%	62.7%	31.3%	25.7%
2026-10-03T23:56:43+00:00	71.9%	72.8%	62.7%	31.3%	25.7%
2026-10-04T00:41:49+00:00	71.9%	72.8%	62.7%	31.3%	25.7%
2026-10-04T01:27:00+00:00	73.5%	72.8%	62.7%	31.3%	25.7%
2026-10-04T02:12:18+00:00	73.5%	72.8%	62.7%	31.3%	25.7%
2026-10-04T02:57:28+00:00	73.5%	72.8%	62.7%	31.3%	25.7%
2026-10-04T03:43:01+00:00	73.5%	72.8%	62.7%	31.3%	25.7%
2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00	73.5%	72.8%	62.7%	31.3%	25.7%
2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:00	73.5%	72.8%	66.3%	31.3%	25.7%
2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:00	73.5%	72.8%	66.3%	31.3%	25.7%
2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:00	73.5%	72.8%	66.3%	31.3%	25.7%
2026-10-04T07:29:37+00:00	76.5%	72.8%	66.3%	29.6%	18.2%
2026-10-04T08:15:42+00:00	76.5%	72.8%	66.3%	29.6%	18.2%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	76.5%	72.8%	66.3%	29.6%	18.2%
2026-10-04T09:45:58+00:00	76.5%	72.8%	66.3%	29.6%	18.2%
2026-10-04T10:31:04+00:00	76.5%	72.8%	66.3%	29.6%	18.2%
2026-10-04T11:16:18+00:00	76.5%	60.5%	69.7%	29.6%	18.2%
2026-10-04T12:01:36+00:00	76.5%	60.5%	69.7%	29.6%	18.2%
2026-10-04T12:47:04+00:00	76.5%	60.5%	69.7%	29.6%	18.2%
2026-10-04T13:32:24+00:00	76.5%	60.5%	69.7%	29.6%	18.2%
2026-10-04T14:21:28+00:00	76.5%	60.2%	69.6%	29.6%	18.2%
2026-10-04T15:06:51+00:00	76.5%	62.0%	69.6%	29.6%	18.2%
2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:00	76.5%	62.0%	69.6%	29.6%	18.2%
2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:00	76.5%	62.0%	69.6%	29.6%	18.2%
2026-10-04T17:23:01+00:00	76.5%	62.0%	60.8%	29.6%	18.2%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	76.5%	62.0%	60.8%	29.6%	18.2%
2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:00	76.5%	62.0%	60.8%	29.6%	18.2%
2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:00	79.4%	62.0%	60.8%	27.8%	22.2%
2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:00	79.4%	62.0%	60.8%	27.8%	22.2%
2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:00	79.4%	62.0%	60.8%	27.8%	22.2%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	79.4%	62.0%	60.8%	27.8%	22.2%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	79.4%	62.0%	60.8%	27.8%	22.2%
2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:00	79.4%	62.0%	63.4%	27.8%	22.2%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	79.4%	62.0%	63.4%	27.8%	22.2%
2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:00	79.4%	62.0%	63.4%	27.8%	22.2%
2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:00	80.8%	62.0%	63.4%	27.8%	22.2%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	80.8%	62.0%	63.4%	27.8%	22.2%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	80.8%	62.0%	63.4%	27.8%	22.2%
2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00	80.8%	62.0%	63.4%	27.8%	22.2%
2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:00	80.8%	62.0%	63.4%	27.8%	22.2%
2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:00	80.8%	62.0%	63.4%	27.8%	22.2%
2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:00	80.8%	62.0%	63.4%	27.8%	22.2%
2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00	80.8%	62.0%	63.4%	27.8%	22.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	81%	83.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-04 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	80.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	62%	80.3°F	2.6°F	2026-10-04 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-05 03:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	80.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	77.3°F	3.7°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending
ICON	22%	76.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-04 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261005-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 02 · 14:44 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗