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KBNA / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 03 · 02:47 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
12%
WN2
7%
EPS
3%
ICON
3%
HRES
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 7.1¢Risks 3.55u
VS
HRESNO 92.9¢Risks 46.45u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +46.45u · HRES −46.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.2% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.7% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.8% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.0% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.5% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 6.6% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.5% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.0% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.3% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.9% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.0% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.3% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.9% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.8% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.9% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.3% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.9% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.6% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.1% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.1% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.7% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.7% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.7% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.9% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.9% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.9% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.9% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.9% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.0% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 1.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.9% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.5% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.3% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.7% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.4% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.1% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.0% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.1% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.6% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.4% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.0% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0009-20 06:0009-28 00:0010-05 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:000.0%————3.3%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:001.4%—————
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:002.4%————25.7%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:0010.5%—————
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:000.3%————20.4%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:0022.0%—————
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:000.4%————20.1%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:001.1%—————
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:004.7%————14.0%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:0025.2%—————
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:008.7%————7.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:001.1%—————
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:000.5%————6.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:000.6%—————
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:000.9%————6.4%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:000.8%—————
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:0014.8%————5.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:001.0%—————
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:000.2%————5.5%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:000.1%—————
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:006.0%—3.2%——4.7%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:003.9%—————
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:000.6%————4.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:008.9%—————
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:001.1%—1.9%——2.7%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:001.1%—————
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:000.7%—0.2%——3.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:001.5%—16.0%———
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:008.3%—8.3%——4.3%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:000.1%—0.0%———
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:000.7%0.9%1.5%——2.0%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:003.2%—2.9%———
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:000.4%0.1%5.8%0.1%—3.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:001.1%—1.0%———
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:005.3%6.6%1.7%4.9%—2.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:002.1%—3.3%———
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:004.4%0.1%—0.2%1.0%—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:007.1%—1.3%———
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:007.2%2.3%4.9%17.9%—2.0%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:004.5%0.0%6.0%———
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:005.3%0.4%1.8%6.9%—1.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:002.5%0.2%4.3%———
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:002.1%0.4%1.9%2.9%—0.8%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:001.1%—4.8%———
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:001.2%—12.9%1.9%0.9%0.8%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:001.4%—20.3%———
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:001.6%—7.9%1.0%—0.3%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:001.6%—12.4%———
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:001.2%—4.7%0.5%—0.1%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:001.0%2.5%4.5%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:000.9%0.5%6.6%0.2%—0.3%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:000.8%0.8%6.7%0.0%——
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:000.8%0.5%6.1%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:000.7%0.2%3.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:000.7%0.3%3.0%0.1%0.5%0.1%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:000.6%0.2%3.0%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.6%0.2%3.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:000.6%0.3%2.7%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:000.6%0.4%3.7%0.1%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.4%3.7%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%1.8%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.3%1.4%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single12%81.5°F4.3°F2026-10-02 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 27%81.5°F3.3°F2026-10-02 12:00Pending
NWS forecast5%80.0°F3.9°F2026-10-02 14:00Pending
IFS Ensemble3%80.5°F3.2°F2026-10-02 00:00Pending
ICON3%79.0°F3.9°F2026-10-02 12:00Pending
IFS HRES2%77.0°F4.5°F2026-10-02 12:00Pending
National Blend1%79.0°F3.3°F2026-10-02 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261005-TMAX-GE87
Opened Sep 28 · 07:59 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 87°F+ · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗