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KBNA / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 29 · 03:36 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
9%
EPS
7%
ICON
4%
WN2
3%
AIFS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 5.4¢Risks 1.35u
VS
AIFSNO 94.6¢Risks 23.65u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.65u · AIFS −23.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.0% · 2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.1% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.0% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.0% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.0% · 2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.8% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.2% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.5% · 2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.1% · 2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.8% · 2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.4% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 6.4% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.7% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.8% · 2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.0% · 2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.8% · 2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.2% · 2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0009-20 06:0009-28 00:0010-05 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-09-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-20T12:00:00+00:000.0%————1.2%
2026-09-20T18:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-09-21T00:00:00+00:000.9%————14.6%
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:004.9%—————
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:000.1%————11.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:0012.0%—————
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:000.1%————10.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:001.9%————6.9%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:0014.3%—————
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:003.9%————3.1%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:000.4%—————
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:000.1%————2.8%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:000.3%————2.7%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:007.4%————2.0%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:000.0%————2.2%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:002.4%—1.1%——1.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:001.4%—————
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:000.2%————1.4%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:003.6%—————
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:000.3%—0.6%——0.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:000.3%—————
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:000.2%—0.0%——1.2%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:000.4%—7.0%———
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:003.0%—3.0%——1.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%———
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%0.4%——0.5%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:000.9%—0.8%———
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%1.8%0.0%—0.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:000.2%—0.2%———
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:001.5%2.0%0.4%1.4%—0.5%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:000.5%—0.8%———
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:001.1%0.0%—0.0%0.2%—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:002.0%—0.2%———
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:002.0%0.5%1.2%6.4%—0.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:001.0%0.0%1.5%———
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:001.2%0.1%0.3%1.7%—0.2%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:000.5%0.0%0.9%———
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%0.3%0.5%—0.1%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:000.2%—0.9%———
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:000.1%—3.4%0.3%0.1%0.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:000.2%—6.1%———
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:000.2%—1.6%0.1%—0.0%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:000.2%—2.8%———
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:000.1%—0.7%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.3%0.6%———
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%1.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.9%0.0%——
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.8%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.3%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.2%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES9%81.0°F6.3°F2026-09-28 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble7%81.0°F5.8°F2026-09-28 00:00Pending
ICON4%72.9°F9.8°F2026-09-28 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 23%80.0°F4.9°F2026-09-28 12:00Pending
AIFS Single2%77.9°F5.6°F2026-09-28 18:00Pending
National Blend2%75.4°F6.6°F2026-09-28 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261005-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 28 · 14:01 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗