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KBNA / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 29 · 03:36 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
9%
EPS
7%
ICON
4%
WN2
3%
AIFS
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 5.4¢Risks 1.35u
VS
AIFSNO 94.6¢Risks 23.65u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.65u · AIFS −23.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.9% · 2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 6.9% · 2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 7.1% · 2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.3% · 2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00IFS HRES: 3.4% · 2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00IFS HRES: 9.0% · 2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00IFS HRES: 9.0% · 2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00IFS HRES: 9.0% · 2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00IFS HRES: 9.0% · 2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00IFS HRES: 9.0% · 2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00IFS HRES: 9.0% · 2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00IFS HRES: 9.0% · 2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:00ICON: 9.3% · 2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:0009-28 14:0109-28 19:1909-29 03:36
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-28T14:01:27+00:004.4%6.9%1.3%3.4%9.3%
2026-09-28T14:48:35+00:004.4%6.9%1.3%3.4%9.3%
2026-09-28T15:34:02+00:004.4%7.1%1.3%3.4%9.3%
2026-09-28T16:19:08+00:004.4%7.1%1.3%3.4%9.3%
2026-09-28T17:04:14+00:004.4%7.1%3.4%3.4%4.5%
2026-09-28T17:49:22+00:004.4%7.1%3.4%3.4%4.5%
2026-09-28T18:34:28+00:004.4%7.1%3.4%3.4%4.5%
2026-09-28T19:19:34+00:004.4%7.1%3.4%3.4%4.5%
2026-09-28T20:04:44+00:000.7%7.1%3.4%9.0%4.5%
2026-09-28T20:49:50+00:000.7%7.1%3.4%9.0%4.5%
2026-09-28T21:34:54+00:000.7%7.1%3.4%9.0%4.5%
2026-09-28T22:19:58+00:000.7%7.1%3.4%9.0%4.5%
2026-09-29T02:05:44+00:001.8%7.1%2.6%9.0%4.5%
2026-09-29T02:51:01+00:001.8%7.1%2.6%9.0%4.5%
2026-09-29T03:36:06+00:001.8%7.1%2.6%9.0%4.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES9%81.0°F6.3°F2026-09-28 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble7%81.0°F5.8°F2026-09-28 00:00Pending
ICON4%72.9°F9.8°F2026-09-28 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 23%80.0°F4.9°F2026-09-28 12:00Pending
AIFS Single2%77.9°F5.6°F2026-09-28 18:00Pending
National Blend2%75.4°F6.6°F2026-09-28 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261005-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 28 · 14:01 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗