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KBNA / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Sep 29 · 10:23 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
76%
AIFS
68%
ICON
61%
WN2
44%
HRES
40%
Consensus
60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 57.9¢Risks 57.85u
VS
HRESNO 42.1¢Risks 42.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.15u · HRES −42.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 68.0% · 2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00AIFS Single: 68.0% · 2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00AIFS Single: 68.0% · 2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00AIFS Single: 68.0% · 2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00AIFS Single: 68.0% · 2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.6% · 2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.9% · 2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.9% · 2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.9% · 2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.9% · 2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 43.9% · 2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00IFS HRES: 40.1% · 2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00IFS HRES: 40.1% · 2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00IFS HRES: 40.1% · 2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00IFS HRES: 40.1% · 2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00IFS HRES: 40.1% · 2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00ICON: 60.9% · 2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:00ICON: 60.9% · 2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:00ICON: 60.9% · 2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:00ICON: 60.9% · 2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:00ICON: 60.9% · 2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:0009-29 07:2209-29 08:5309-29 10:23
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-29T07:22:29+00:0068.0%75.6%43.9%40.1%60.9%
2026-09-29T08:08:16+00:0068.0%75.6%43.9%40.1%60.9%
2026-09-29T08:53:32+00:0068.0%75.6%43.9%40.1%60.9%
2026-09-29T09:38:37+00:0068.0%75.6%43.9%40.1%60.9%
2026-09-29T10:23:42+00:0068.0%75.6%43.9%40.1%60.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble76%77.8°F4.8°F2026-09-28 00:00Pending
AIFS Single68%77.1°F5.6°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending
ICON61%77.2°F9.8°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending
National Blend56%75.4°F6.6°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 244%73.7°F5.2°F2026-09-28 18:00Pending
IFS HRES40%72.9°F6.3°F2026-09-29 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261006-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 29 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗