KBNA / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Sep 29 · 10:23 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

68%

61%

44%

40%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.9¢Risks 57.85u

HRESNO 42.1¢Risks 42.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.15u · HRES −42.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	42.9%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	43.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	3.6%	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	66.5%	—	—	59.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	23.0%	—	—	49.4%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	48.0%	—	—	56.5%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	41.3%	52.7%	—	—	51.3%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	4.7%	—	10.2%	43.0%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	58.7%	57.3%	75.1%	—	59.4%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	80.0%	60.6%	38.0%	59.1%	—	69.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	60.3%	30.1%	73.2%	—	66.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	92.0%	79.9%	85.2%	70.0%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	88.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	—	88.7%	64.6%	—	70.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	85.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	84.5%	67.8%	—	62.7%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	76.9%	85.7%	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	80.3%	97.1%	63.4%	—	81.7%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	90.8%	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	86.6%	99.5%	60.2%	—	85.5%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	91.2%	90.8%	99.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	91.5%	85.7%	99.5%	59.7%	11.4%	83.8%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	89.8%	99.7%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	93.5%	87.9%	99.4%	61.5%	4.8%	83.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	91.3%	99.8%	67.5%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	93.7%	99.8%	70.2%	95.1%	88.8%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	93.6%	91.8%	99.8%	73.1%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	86.6%	99.8%	64.4%	94.3%	85.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	93.3%	99.6%	71.2%	—	87.5%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	96.5%	98.1%	99.8%	79.8%	98.8%	94.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	93.5%	99.2%	99.8%	75.2%	—	92.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	96.6%	99.1%	99.9%	68.3%	99.1%	92.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	99.7%	99.9%	87.7%	—	99.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	76%	77.8°F	4.8°F	2026-09-28 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	68%	77.1°F	5.6°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
ICON	61%	77.2°F	9.8°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	75.4°F	6.6°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	44%	73.7°F	5.2°F	2026-09-28 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	40%	72.9°F	6.3°F	2026-09-29 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261006-TMAX-GE75
Opened Sep 29 · 07:22 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 75°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗