KBNA / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 05 · 15:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

42%

39%

31%

17%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.2¢Risks 39.25u

ICONNO 60.7¢Risks 60.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.75u · ICON −60.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	18.1%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	0.2%	—	—	14.8%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	26.2%	—	—	20.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	3.3%	—	—	13.2%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	11.7%	—	—	16.4%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	8.0%	8.0%	13.2%	—	—	12.4%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	12.2%	0.2%	—	0.6%	7.9%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	14.4%	13.6%	27.2%	—	14.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	14.2%	5.0%	13.4%	—	20.5%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	4.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	12.7%	2.7%	21.8%	—	16.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	4.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	47.5%	26.5%	33.8%	17.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	37.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	37.1%	12.2%	—	16.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	30.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	27.4%	12.4%	—	9.8%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	27.6%	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	19.7%	57.7%	8.6%	—	21.0%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	33.5%	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	24.3%	78.1%	6.1%	—	22.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	29.8%	85.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	19.8%	74.5%	4.7%	0.1%	17.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	24.0%	78.6%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	19.1%	66.9%	4.0%	0.0%	14.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	22.5%	76.6%	4.8%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	25.6%	77.3%	4.9%	29.8%	16.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	19.1%	73.1%	4.9%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	10.7%	69.3%	2.4%	22.0%	10.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	17.3%	58.3%	3.0%	—	9.8%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	31.8%	61.4%	4.4%	38.6%	18.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	39.5%	61.9%	2.4%	—	10.5%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	34.6%	62.4%	1.1%	34.6%	9.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	41.8%	63.0%	4.1%	—	30.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	68%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	82.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-05 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	80.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	80.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	79.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	78.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261006-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 04 · 03:43 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗