KBNA / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 05 · 15:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

42%

39%

31%

17%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 39.2¢Risks 39.25u

ICONNO 60.7¢Risks 60.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +60.75u · ICON −60.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T03:43:01+00:00	64.4%	50.0%	53.6%	34.4%	28.6%
2026-10-04T04:28:40+00:00	64.4%	50.0%	53.6%	34.4%	28.6%
2026-10-04T05:13:57+00:00	64.4%	50.0%	50.0%	34.4%	28.6%
2026-10-04T05:59:04+00:00	64.4%	50.0%	50.0%	34.4%	28.6%
2026-10-04T06:44:10+00:00	64.4%	50.0%	50.0%	34.4%	28.6%
2026-10-04T07:29:37+00:00	64.1%	50.0%	50.0%	29.6%	16.1%
2026-10-04T08:15:42+00:00	64.1%	50.0%	50.0%	29.6%	16.1%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	64.1%	50.0%	50.0%	29.6%	16.1%
2026-10-04T09:45:58+00:00	64.1%	50.0%	50.0%	29.6%	16.1%
2026-10-04T10:31:04+00:00	64.1%	50.0%	50.0%	29.6%	16.1%
2026-10-04T11:16:18+00:00	64.1%	48.6%	51.3%	29.6%	16.1%
2026-10-04T12:01:36+00:00	64.1%	48.6%	51.3%	29.6%	16.1%
2026-10-04T12:47:04+00:00	64.1%	48.6%	51.3%	29.6%	16.1%
2026-10-04T13:32:24+00:00	65.0%	48.6%	51.3%	29.6%	16.1%
2026-10-04T14:21:28+00:00	65.0%	48.6%	51.3%	29.6%	16.1%
2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00	63.2%	50.0%	51.3%	27.9%	16.8%
2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:00	63.2%	50.0%	51.3%	27.9%	16.8%
2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:00	63.2%	50.0%	51.3%	27.9%	16.8%
2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:00	63.2%	50.0%	51.3%	27.9%	16.8%
2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00	63.2%	50.0%	51.3%	27.9%	16.8%
2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:00	60.8%	50.0%	51.3%	30.5%	16.8%
2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:00	60.8%	50.0%	51.3%	30.5%	16.8%
2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:00	60.8%	50.0%	51.3%	30.5%	16.8%
2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:00	60.8%	50.0%	51.3%	30.5%	16.8%
2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:00	60.8%	50.0%	51.3%	30.5%	16.8%
2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:00	60.8%	52.9%	41.9%	30.5%	16.8%
2026-10-05T12:14:16+00:00	60.8%	52.9%	41.9%	30.5%	16.8%
2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00	60.8%	52.9%	41.9%	30.5%	16.8%
2026-10-05T13:44:47+00:00	61.7%	52.9%	41.9%	30.5%	16.8%
2026-10-05T14:34:13+00:00	61.7%	52.9%	41.9%	30.6%	16.8%
2026-10-05T15:19:22+00:00	61.7%	38.8%	41.9%	30.6%	16.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	68%	83.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	62%	82.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-05 03:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	80.9°F	2.9°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	80.7°F	2.8°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	31%	79.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	78.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261006-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 04 · 03:43 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗