KBNA / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 06 · 19:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

17%

15%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 18.2¢Risks 18.25u

ICONNO 81.8¢Risks 81.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +81.75u · ICON −81.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-21T06:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-21T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-21T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	13.7%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	6.1%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	7.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.1%	—	—	9.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	17.3%	—	—	13.0%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	1.6%	—	—	7.6%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	6.5%	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	10.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	4.0%	7.2%	—	—	6.8%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	0.1%	—	0.2%	3.9%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	7.6%	7.1%	16.5%	—	7.9%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	7.3%	2.1%	6.8%	—	11.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	6.2%	1.0%	11.9%	—	8.4%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	31.5%	14.8%	20.1%	8.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	22.1%	5.4%	—	7.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	16.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	14.4%	5.3%	—	3.9%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	14.3%	21.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	9.0%	38.5%	3.2%	—	9.8%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	17.7%	51.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	11.3%	60.2%	1.9%	—	10.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	14.4%	69.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	8.1%	54.4%	1.3%	0.0%	7.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	10.2%	59.0%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	7.2%	44.2%	1.0%	0.0%	4.8%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	8.7%	54.8%	1.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	10.0%	55.0%	1.1%	12.4%	5.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	6.4%	48.7%	1.1%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	2.8%	43.3%	0.4%	7.4%	2.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.4%	5.0%	31.2%	0.5%	—	2.3%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	11.5%	33.1%	0.7%	15.4%	5.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	15.3%	32.5%	0.3%	—	2.2%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.1%	11.7%	31.7%	0.1%	11.7%	1.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	15.0%	30.9%	0.5%	—	9.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	82.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	81.1°F	2.5°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	79.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	80.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
ICON	5%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261006-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 04 · 15:06 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗