KBNA / Tue Oct 6 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 84°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST18%Oct 06 · 19:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

31%

17%

15%

Consensus

18%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 18.2¢Risks 18.25u

ICONNO 81.8¢Risks 81.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +81.75u · ICON −81.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T15:06:51+00:00	46.2%	24.1%	27.0%	15.3%	6.0%
2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:00	46.2%	24.1%	27.0%	15.3%	6.0%
2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:00	46.2%	24.1%	27.0%	15.3%	6.0%
2026-10-04T17:23:01+00:00	46.2%	24.1%	24.9%	15.3%	6.0%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	46.2%	24.1%	24.9%	15.3%	6.0%
2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:00	46.2%	24.1%	24.9%	15.3%	6.0%
2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:00	46.2%	24.1%	24.9%	14.2%	6.3%
2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:00	46.2%	24.1%	24.9%	14.2%	6.3%
2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:00	46.2%	24.1%	24.9%	14.2%	6.3%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	46.2%	24.1%	24.9%	14.2%	6.3%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	46.2%	24.1%	24.9%	14.2%	6.3%
2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:00	46.2%	24.1%	27.0%	14.2%	6.3%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	46.2%	24.1%	27.0%	14.2%	6.3%
2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:00	46.2%	24.1%	27.0%	14.2%	6.3%
2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:00	44.2%	24.1%	27.0%	14.2%	6.3%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	44.2%	24.1%	27.0%	14.2%	6.3%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	44.2%	24.1%	27.0%	14.2%	6.3%
2026-10-05T16:04:39+00:00	42.1%	16.0%	18.7%	14.9%	6.3%
2026-10-05T16:50:28+00:00	42.1%	16.0%	18.7%	14.9%	6.3%
2026-10-05T17:35:35+00:00	42.1%	16.0%	13.7%	14.9%	6.3%
2026-10-05T18:20:43+00:00	42.1%	16.0%	13.7%	14.9%	6.3%
2026-10-05T19:05:49+00:00	42.1%	16.0%	13.7%	14.9%	6.3%
2026-10-05T19:50:56+00:00	38.3%	16.0%	13.7%	14.9%	2.4%
2026-10-05T20:36:05+00:00	38.3%	16.0%	13.7%	14.9%	2.4%
2026-10-05T21:21:24+00:00	38.3%	16.0%	13.7%	14.9%	2.4%
2026-10-05T22:06:31+00:00	38.3%	16.0%	13.7%	14.9%	2.4%
2026-10-05T22:51:36+00:00	38.3%	16.0%	13.7%	14.9%	2.4%
2026-10-05T23:36:43+00:00	38.3%	16.0%	12.3%	14.9%	2.4%
2026-10-06T00:21:51+00:00	38.3%	16.0%	12.3%	14.9%	2.4%
2026-10-06T01:07:03+00:00	38.3%	16.0%	12.3%	14.9%	2.4%
2026-10-06T01:52:09+00:00	39.2%	16.0%	12.3%	14.9%	2.4%
2026-10-06T02:37:19+00:00	39.2%	16.0%	12.3%	14.9%	2.4%
2026-10-06T03:22:27+00:00	39.2%	16.0%	12.3%	14.9%	2.4%
2026-10-06T04:07:49+00:00	39.2%	16.0%	12.3%	14.9%	2.4%
2026-10-06T04:53:30+00:00	39.2%	16.0%	25.8%	14.9%	2.4%
2026-10-06T05:38:46+00:00	39.2%	16.0%	25.8%	14.9%	2.4%
2026-10-06T06:23:52+00:00	39.2%	16.0%	25.8%	14.9%	2.4%
2026-10-06T07:08:58+00:00	39.2%	16.0%	25.8%	14.9%	2.4%
2026-10-06T07:54:05+00:00	43.5%	16.0%	25.8%	14.9%	5.4%
2026-10-06T08:39:12+00:00	43.5%	16.0%	25.8%	14.9%	5.4%
2026-10-06T09:24:22+00:00	43.5%	16.0%	25.8%	14.9%	5.4%
2026-10-06T10:09:28+00:00	43.5%	16.0%	25.8%	14.9%	5.4%
2026-10-06T10:54:35+00:00	43.5%	17.9%	22.2%	14.9%	5.4%
2026-10-06T11:39:42+00:00	43.5%	17.9%	22.2%	14.9%	5.4%
2026-10-06T12:24:48+00:00	43.5%	17.9%	22.2%	14.9%	5.4%
2026-10-06T13:09:55+00:00	43.5%	17.9%	22.2%	14.9%	5.4%
2026-10-06T13:55:03+00:00	31.1%	17.9%	22.2%	14.9%	5.4%
2026-10-06T14:43:56+00:00	31.1%	17.9%	22.2%	14.9%	5.4%
2026-10-06T15:29:20+00:00	31.1%	16.9%	22.2%	14.9%	5.4%
2026-10-06T16:15:03+00:00	31.1%	16.9%	22.2%	14.9%	5.4%
2026-10-06T17:00:13+00:00	31.1%	16.9%	7.9%	14.9%	5.4%
2026-10-06T17:45:22+00:00	31.1%	16.9%	7.9%	14.9%	5.4%
2026-10-06T18:30:30+00:00	31.1%	16.9%	7.9%	14.9%	5.4%
2026-10-06T19:15:37+00:00	31.1%	16.9%	7.9%	14.9%	5.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	84.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-06 14:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	83.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	31%	82.0°F	3.0°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	17%	81.1°F	2.5°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	15%	79.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	8%	80.0°F	2.5°F	2026-10-06 06:00	Pending
ICON	5%	78.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-06 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 84°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261006-TMAX-GE84
Opened Oct 04 · 15:06 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 84°F · Tue Oct 6

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗