KBNA / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

85%

84%

70%

66%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 76.0¢Risks 75.95u

WN2NO 24.0¢Risks 24.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.05u · WN2 −24.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-01T02:26:03+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-30T07:31:59+00:00	73.3%	69.3%	60.6%	86.2%	46.7%
2026-09-30T08:18:13+00:00	73.3%	69.3%	60.6%	86.2%	46.7%
2026-09-30T09:03:35+00:00	73.3%	69.3%	60.6%	86.2%	46.7%
2026-09-30T09:48:41+00:00	73.3%	69.3%	60.6%	86.2%	46.7%
2026-09-30T10:34:41+00:00	87.6%	69.3%	60.6%	86.2%	46.7%
2026-09-30T11:19:59+00:00	87.6%	86.0%	66.7%	86.2%	46.7%
2026-09-30T12:05:14+00:00	87.6%	86.0%	66.7%	86.2%	46.7%
2026-09-30T12:50:19+00:00	87.6%	86.0%	66.7%	86.2%	46.7%
2026-09-30T13:35:29+00:00	83.5%	86.0%	66.7%	86.2%	46.7%
2026-09-30T14:23:08+00:00	83.5%	86.0%	66.7%	86.2%	47.1%
2026-09-30T15:08:15+00:00	83.5%	86.6%	66.7%	86.2%	47.1%
2026-09-30T15:53:29+00:00	83.5%	86.6%	66.7%	86.2%	47.1%
2026-09-30T16:38:49+00:00	83.5%	86.6%	66.7%	86.2%	70.3%
2026-09-30T17:23:57+00:00	83.5%	86.6%	58.1%	86.2%	70.3%
2026-09-30T18:09:04+00:00	83.5%	86.6%	58.1%	86.2%	70.3%
2026-09-30T18:54:13+00:00	83.5%	86.6%	58.1%	86.2%	70.3%
2026-09-30T19:39:19+00:00	86.8%	86.6%	58.1%	83.6%	70.3%
2026-09-30T20:24:32+00:00	86.8%	86.6%	58.1%	83.6%	70.3%
2026-09-30T21:09:38+00:00	86.8%	86.6%	58.1%	83.6%	70.3%
2026-09-30T21:54:44+00:00	86.8%	86.6%	58.1%	83.6%	70.3%
2026-09-30T22:39:50+00:00	86.8%	86.6%	58.1%	83.6%	70.3%
2026-09-30T23:24:55+00:00	86.8%	86.0%	65.9%	83.6%	70.3%
2026-10-01T00:10:15+00:00	86.8%	86.0%	65.9%	83.6%	70.3%
2026-10-01T00:55:50+00:00	86.8%	86.0%	65.9%	83.6%	70.3%
2026-10-01T01:40:55+00:00	84.8%	86.0%	65.9%	83.6%	70.3%
2026-10-01T02:26:03+00:00	84.8%	86.0%	65.9%	83.6%	70.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	81.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	83.2°F	5.5°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	83.7°F	6.3°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
ICON	70%	82.7°F	9.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	79.5°F	4.9°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	78.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261007-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 30 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗