KBNA / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 01 · 02:26 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

85%

84%

70%

66%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 76.0¢Risks 75.95u

WN2NO 24.0¢Risks 24.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.05u · WN2 −24.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	38.0%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	32.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	12.7%	—	—	35.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	5.3%	—	—	42.8%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	43.1%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	—	—	50.0%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	20.8%	71.8%	—	—	65.8%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	60.9%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	66.4%	57.7%	36.9%	19.9%	—	66.4%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	75.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	67.7%	65.7%	75.1%	64.3%	—	64.3%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	78.4%	69.1%	81.1%	74.9%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	91.9%	61.8%	—	72.6%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	73.7%	—	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	87.5%	72.8%	—	50.8%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	71.2%	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	83.3%	77.2%	92.7%	64.6%	—	86.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	85.5%	87.0%	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	79.7%	99.0%	78.4%	—	87.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	84.6%	84.6%	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	85.3%	85.3%	99.7%	72.9%	—	84.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	85.4%	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	83.0%	99.6%	78.1%	—	87.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	88.4%	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	91.9%	88.1%	99.5%	75.3%	2.0%	93.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	88.2%	99.5%	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	92.4%	85.3%	99.5%	81.7%	0.9%	92.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	93.8%	91.8%	99.5%	88.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	95.7%	97.2%	99.5%	90.5%	99.3%	98.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	97.8%	99.7%	90.8%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	96.0%	98.0%	99.7%	89.9%	99.0%	97.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	96.8%	99.0%	99.7%	91.9%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	99.6%	99.8%	96.3%	99.5%	99.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	93.5%	99.5%	99.9%	95.9%	—	98.5%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	96.3%	99.6%	100.0%	97.4%	99.6%	98.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	21.6%	99.7%	99.9%	98.7%	—	99.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	86%	81.5°F	3.7°F	2026-09-30 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	83.2°F	5.5°F	2026-09-30 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	84%	83.7°F	6.3°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
ICON	70%	82.7°F	9.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	66%	79.5°F	4.9°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	78.4°F	5.5°F	2026-09-30 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261007-TMAX-GE78
Opened Sep 30 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗