KBNA / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 02 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

87%

83%

67%

63%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 75.1¢Risks 75.10u

ICONNO 24.9¢Risks 24.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.90u · ICON −24.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-22T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-22T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-09-22T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-09-23T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-23T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-09-23T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-09-24T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-24T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-09-24T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	23.9%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	7.7%	—	—	25.6%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	29.8%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	2.8%	—	—	31.3%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	31.3%	—	—	37.6%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	41.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	37.2%	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	12.4%	59.4%	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	12.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	52.8%	43.7%	24.6%	11.5%	—	52.8%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	63.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	53.6%	51.5%	62.3%	50.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	65.6%	54.6%	69.1%	61.3%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	75.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	84.1%	46.0%	—	57.9%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	62.3%	—	76.8%	57.5%	—	34.5%
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	55.1%	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	70.1%	62.1%	84.4%	47.4%	—	74.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	75.0%	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	64.4%	96.8%	62.7%	—	75.6%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	70.8%	98.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	71.3%	71.3%	98.7%	54.9%	—	70.4%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	70.9%	97.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	77.3%	67.0%	98.3%	60.2%	—	74.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	74.7%	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	73.6%	98.0%	55.5%	0.5%	83.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	73.3%	97.8%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	80.1%	68.0%	97.8%	62.6%	0.2%	79.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	82.5%	78.4%	97.7%	71.7%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	90.0%	97.4%	75.4%	96.5%	92.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	83.4%	91.3%	98.1%	75.2%	—	0.0%
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	85.9%	91.6%	98.1%	72.7%	95.0%	89.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	87.5%	95.0%	98.0%	75.8%	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	87.0%	97.3%	98.4%	85.4%	96.8%	97.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	77.6%	96.3%	99.4%	83.8%	—	92.0%
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	83.9%	96.9%	99.6%	87.5%	96.6%	93.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	97.4%	99.1%	92.1%	—	96.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	83.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	84.2°F	4.2°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	84.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
National Blend	72%	82.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	82.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	63%	82.7°F	9.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261007-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 02 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗