KBNA / Wed Oct 7 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 02 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

87%

83%

67%

63%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 75.1¢Risks 75.10u

ICONNO 24.9¢Risks 24.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +24.90u · ICON −24.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T13:55:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-02T03:20:55+00:00	76.9%	69.4%	46.5%	70.7%	62.9%
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	76.9%	69.4%	46.5%	70.7%	62.9%
2026-10-02T04:51:30+00:00	76.9%	69.4%	46.5%	70.7%	62.9%
2026-10-02T05:36:47+00:00	76.9%	69.4%	79.8%	70.7%	62.9%
2026-10-02T06:22:01+00:00	76.9%	69.4%	79.8%	70.7%	62.9%
2026-10-02T07:07:11+00:00	76.9%	69.4%	79.8%	70.7%	62.9%
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	82.5%	69.4%	79.8%	70.7%	62.9%
2026-10-02T08:37:31+00:00	82.5%	69.4%	79.8%	70.7%	62.9%
2026-10-02T09:22:36+00:00	82.5%	69.4%	79.8%	70.7%	62.9%
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	82.5%	69.4%	79.8%	70.7%	62.9%
2026-10-02T10:53:18+00:00	82.5%	87.3%	86.8%	67.3%	62.9%
2026-10-02T11:39:23+00:00	82.5%	87.3%	86.8%	67.3%	62.9%
2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00	82.5%	87.3%	86.8%	67.3%	62.9%
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	82.5%	87.3%	86.8%	67.3%	62.9%
2026-10-02T13:55:56+00:00	82.6%	87.3%	86.8%	67.3%	62.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	83.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	84.2°F	4.2°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	84.1°F	4.9°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
National Blend	72%	82.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	82.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	63%	82.7°F	9.7°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.1°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261007-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 02 · 03:20 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 7

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗